Daily Archives: January 10, 2013

Thursday Evening Thoughts

Good Thursday evening. The forecast continues to go as planned as we head into the weekend. Mild temps and rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be with us through the much of the next few days. That’s when winter shows up, again.

The models continue to show a quicker cold frontal passage Sunday. That’s when we will see 60s in the east with 30s in the west by early afternoon. The cold air then rushes eastward and drops everyone into the 30s Sunday night into Monday morning. With rain hanging around in parts of the state… a period of some light snow will be possible.

I’m turning my focus toward Monday night and Tuesday and the increasing chance for a significant round of wintry weather. The front will be stalled to our east as another low pressure works along it. That will throw moisture back into the cold air and this could lead to a broad swath of accumulating snow and some ice. The GFS Ensembles have been leading the charge with this for a while, now.

GFS

The GFS has been trending in that direction…GFS 3

Here’s what that model runs shows for snowfall…

GFS 2

Again… its way early, but the model trends fit the pattern I’ve been talking about.

What happens after that depends on what model you look at. Some blast an arctic front in here by Wednesday night and Thursday. Others say a cutoff low across the southwest ejects eastward and develops a storm to our south…

Euro

That’s the European Model forecast and is something to keep an eye on. Some of the ensembles have been showing something similar for the past few days. Notice the bitterly cold air across southern Canada. The European Model shows that working southward by next weekend…

Euro 2

Have a great evening and take care.

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Tracking A Wild Weather Swing

Good Thursday to one and all. Our weather is about to take a walk on the wild side over the next several days as the supercharged pattern kicks into high gear. We are tracking everything from heavy rain and near record highs to a serious temp tank and some snow.

It all gets started out there today with a big temp gradient and an increase in showers and thunderstorm activity. An area of low pressure will continue to lift northward across the Mississippi River Valley and will drag a warm front from south to north across the state today. This will mean a heck of a temp swing out there with the northern half of the state struggling in the 40s while the south hits the 60s. The mild air will then win out late today into the evening hours.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will then ramp up tonight into early Friday. A little clearing later Friday will help temps surge into the low and mid 60s.

Those 60s hang tough into Saturday. How high they get will depend on when the next round of showers and storms arrive. Locally heavy rain will be a good bet from late Saturday into Sunday. The good news is the colder scenario appears to play out and that will lessen the flood threat.

Our cold front should sweep across the state Sunday into Sunday night. The GFS is coming around to what the GFS Ensembles have been suggesting and what the GFS was saying a few days back. Take a look at the temp dive…

GFS

The GFS even says the back edge of the rain ends as snow Monday morning  across central Kentucky. For fun… here’s the snow forecast by that time…

GFS Snowfall

Again… don’t take that as the absolute truth. I’m only highlighting it to show how it’s going toward what the pattern suggests. Don’t worry… it will change with each and every run today. ;)

The same run of the GFS also shows a colder solution with the next system on Tuesday…

GFS 2

It’s likely a little too disjointed with the precipitation and may be able to put down a little snow for some. The Canadian Model certainly looks the part…

Canadian

It looks like the cold air then continues to sink southward into the middle of next week with the possibility of the first clipper of the year. That should be followed by another push of very cold air by next weekend. There’s the possibility it meets up with something down in the Gulf. The same Canadian Model likes that scenario…

Canadian 2

So, there you have it. A super busy pattern that will feature some big time changes in the next several days and lead us into a very wintry pattern for the rest of the month into February.

Have a great Thursday and check back for updates. Take care.

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