Daily Archives: January 13, 2013

Sunday Evening Update

Good Sunday evening. Heavy rains continue to pound much of the bluegrass state as a powerful cold front swings eastward. This front is causing temps to drop like a rock and that trend will continue across the central and east this evening and overnight. Some sleet and light snow have been reported west of Interstate 65 and some of that could work into the rest of the state overnight.

We will also need to keep an eye on the black ice possibility tonight. There is a ton of water out there and readings heading into the upper 20s means look out.

What happens after this? The cold front slows down just to our east and allows for two waves of low pressure to develop along it. The first wave comes later Monday into early Tuesday. The late afternoon model runs continue to trend a little stronger with this system and that means a better shot at some wintry weather. A mix of rain, snow and ice will be possible late Monday into Monday night.

The NAM shows a little bit of everything falling, but still tries to put down some light snow…

NAM Snow

Again… the model is having a difficult time determining precipitation type. Let’s just call it a wintry mix at this point and figure it out later.

There could be similar system late Tuesday into Wednesday.

Several models have been showing a southern low developing toward the end of this week. The GFS Ensembles and the Canadian have been leading the charge on this. The new GFS is picking up on it…

GFS

We will need to keep an eye on that setup.

The massive dump of arctic air then dives in next weekend into the following week. There is no disagreement on the models with that aspect of it. Many of the models are also trending toward several snow systems to go along with the bitter cold…

EuroThat’s the European Model and it’s going the way of the Canadian runs of late. The Canadian Model has been doing very well of late.

Have a great evening and take care.

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Update On The Flood Potential

Good Sunday afternoon. Our slow moving cold front continues to work across the bluegrass state. Heavy rain continues along this boundary and will continue into the evening hours. The Flood Watch for western Kentucky has now been pushed farther eastward to include parts of central Kentucky.

Lexington and Frankfort are now in the watch. Here’s a look…

Keep an eye on creeks and streams and be ready to move to higher ground if necessary. Many counties across western Kentucky remain under a Flash Flood Warning.

Your tracking toys:

Temps continue to crash behind the front with readings nearing the freezing mark in the far west. That’s an area that will get in on a wintry mix later this afternoon.

The rest of the outlook remains on track… but we have to get through the flood threat and temp plunge, first.

Have a great afternoon and take care.

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Cold Front Tracker Sunday

Good Sunday, everyone. We have a powerful cold front swinging across the state today and this will lead to some wild weather. Temps in the 60s will be replaced by the 30s in a matter of hours, heavy rain and thunderstorms will blow through and some areas will see some wintry stuff mixing in. And that’s just today.

Some headlines on today’s action:

- Temps across central and eastern Kentucky will be well into the 60s into early afternoon. Readings across the west will fall quickly into the 30s today. Those 30s will work eastward behind the front into the evening.

- Heavy rain and thunderstorms will be slow movers and this could lead to local high water issues.

- The cold air catching the back edge of the rain shield means to watch for a wintry mix from west to east behind the front. This could put down a little bit of sleet or snow for some… especially west.

- Readings by Monday morning will drop into the upper 20s.

Here’s what you need to track today’s weather…

The cold front will stall out to our south and east over the next several days. A few waves of low pressure will work along the boundary and these will throw moisture into the state. This will put down a little bit of everything. The GFS is even trying to throw down some light snow through Wednesday…

GFS Snowfall

We see how all this plays out in the coming days.

Several models also bring another system our way from the southwest by the end of the week. The GFS Ensembles…

GFS

The Canadian Model…

Canadian

Then we get to the big arctic outbreak late next weekend or into the following week…

Euro

Canadian 2

I will talk more about all that after we get past today’s wild ride. Have a great Sunday. Check back for updates and take care.

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