Daily Archives: January 14, 2013

Monday Evening Updated Update

From the better late than never files, A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect until 10pm for parts of eastern and southeastern Ky.

Winter W A

The wintry mix will slowly end over the next few hours. Take care.

Previous Update

Good Monday evening, gang. A nasty mix of sleet, snow and freezing rain is working across parts of central and eastern Kentucky this evening. This will be enough to cause some slick spots. This is round one of the wintry mix… round two arrives late Tuesday into Tuesday night.

Anyone notice the tremendous model bust on temps today? The models had it close to 40 and many areas struggled to get out of the upper 20s. The lost art in meteorology is actually looking to see if the models are verifying with their forecasts before trusting them. This is a low level cold air mass and the models are terrible in how they handle it. Blindly following a model and never looking at the actual weather is a bad thing for anyone to do. Yet, it happens… way too often.

While I’m on the subject… kudos to the NWS in Louisville for updating the forecast based on what was actually happening. Jackson decided to pretend the snow and sleet wasn’t happening and turned a blind eye (as of this writing).

The next wave of low pressure swings in later Tuesday into Tuesday night. This means another round of a wintry mix is likely for many areas. There will be more moisture to work with, so the impact may be a little greater than what we have this evening. If the models are as bad with the temps tomorrow as they were today, we may have some bigger issues.

The GFS does show freezing rain…

GFSThat’s the models way of telling us there will be a wintry mix of some kind across the state.

The big arctic plunge is full steam ahead this weekend into next week. Look at all the bitter cold and action showing up on the European Model…

Euro

Have a great evening and take care.

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Winter Pushes Back In

Good Monday. We’re coming off a wild weather weekend here in the bluegrass state. We had everything from an EF-2 tornado to a 40 degree temp drop. That big drop in temperatures is the beginning of a major winter comeback across Kentucky and much of the country.

Our day is starting out with temps in the 20s across many areas. This will likely lead to some icy conditions, so please be careful with the early morning commute.

The cold front that caused all the issues is slowing down just to our east. This will allow for two waves of low pressure to work along it. The first will come late today into early Tuesday and the second moves through Tuesday night and Wednesday. These will throw moisture back into parts of the state and each wave will produce a light wintry mix.

Here’s how the GFS sees this evening…

GFS

We will take a look at the radar later today to see exactly how much moisture makes it into our region.

The next wave has a little more precipitation associated with it on the GFS…GFS 2

Again… we will have to wait to see exactly how much juice meets up with the cold air across Kentucky.

The models continue to eject a cutoff low out of the southwest later Thursday into Friday. Some are turning this into a decent little storm as it skirts to our south. The GFS shows a healthy snow just to the south and southeast of the state…GFS 3

It won’t take much of a northward movement to put parts of Kentucky in line for some action.

You are going to hear more and more people jumping on the big arctic attack for later this weekend into next week. The models continue to go hog wild with it and are trying to put the coldest anomalies right on top of us…

GFS 4That will become a headline maker across much of the country!

I will have another update later today. Enjoy your Monday and take care.

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