Daily Archives: January 19, 2013

Saturday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, my fellow weather weenies. The arctic express forecast remains on track for the coming week and the only thing we need to do is iron out the details. Let’s get started in getting a bit more detailed.

We know about the first blast of cold coming in tomorrow. This knocks our temps from today’s 50s to the upper 20s to mid 30s Sunday. The next system dives in on Monday with a period of light snow and snow showers. Winds will be gusty and temps will crash during the afternoon and evening.The air behind that will make Tuesday the coldest day around here in 3 years.

A clipper will swing into town Tuesday night and Wednesday with a swath of light snow likely. The GFS Ensembles…

GFS

That brings a reinforcing shot of arctic air that continues through Thursday. This will set the stage for a developing area of low pressure to form across the southern Plains. This storm is likely to shoot eastward across the Tennessee Valley by Friday. I know the GFS is trying to cut the storm to the lakes, but it’s the GFS. Storms don’t just cut through arctic air. They find the path of least resistance and go that route. Unfortunately, too many people take EXACTLY what the last run of the GFS shows and run with it. Why? Ask them. ;)

The European Model has a better handle today…Euro

The air coming in behind that storm has the chance to produce colder temps than what we have this Tuesday. There is a lot of Brr to the weather next week and beyond.

Have a great rest of your day and take care.

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A Major Arctic Outbreak On Tap

Good Saturday to one and all. Arctic air is getting ready to overwhelm the pattern across our part of the world. Once it gets in, it’s going to hang around for a long while. This is the pattern we’ve been targeting for the past few weeks. The arctic air won’t be the only thing next week will bring. Snow chances will be on the increase, as well.

Today’s temps will be fairly mild with upper 40s and low 50s. Winds are going to crank up with gusts of 30mph or better. Enjoy it… the first in a series of arctic fronts slips in early Sunday. This will knock temps way down with upper 20s and low 30s for highs with a few snow flurries possible.

The big time blast of arctic air arrives Monday and will bring a round of light snow and snow showers. Those show up well on the NAM Simulated Radar…

NAM 1

Temps Monday will be in the upper 20s ahead of that front and then nose dive during the afternoon. This will unleash the beast that’s been building up in Canada. Take a look at the temps for Tuesday…GFSThe NAM only goes out to Tuesday morning and backs up the single digit start…

NAM 2Highs Tuesday will be in the teens and this will mark the coldest day since January, 2010. Winds are going to be gusty and this will likely lead to wind chill temps going below zero.

A fast moving system will dive into the area Tuesday night and Wednesday. This will likely have a swath of light snow with it and will bring a reinforcing shot of arctic cold.

I’ve been talking about the likelihood of one of these systems amplifying into a big storm at some point next week. Many of the models have pointed toward late in the week. The GFS continues to come around to that way of thinking…

GFS 2

The GFS Ensembles like it, too…

GFS 3

The fun part about all of this is… The end of the month into February looks even colder than what’s coming next week.

Make it a great day and take care.

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