Daily Archives: January 21, 2013

Monday Evening Update

Good Monday evening. Arctic air continues to blow into the bluegrass state as our temps continue to tumble. Winds have topped 30mph at times and our wind chills have been dipping into the single digits. The forecast for the rest of the week remains on track and there’s the increasing possibility of a winter storm late Thursday into Friday.

We know about the cold temps of tonight. Readings hit the upper single digits and low teens with wind chills going below zero. Highs will be in the upper teens and low 20s on Tuesday.

A clipper dives into the Ohio Valley on Wednesday and this will bring a swath of light snow with it.

The setup for late Thursday into Friday remains the same and my thoughts remain the same. A winter storm is likely to impact Kentucky during this time and I like what the European Model is doing with the track of the low…

Euro

That low works right across Tennessee and puts the entire state in line for accumulating snow. That setup matches what should happen with arctic air in place across our part of the world. The GFS Ensemble mean has a threatening look…

GFS

The GFS has been trying to come around to this scenario. The 6z run from earlier today brought quite a bit of snow our way…

GFS 3Again… the GFS is all over the place. The models do not handle low level arctic air very well, so the GFS may take a few days before it settles down. The NAM won’t be of any good until within 48 hours or so.

Regardless of what happens with the storm Friday, the first northwesterly snow event of the season looks likely Saturday.

The pattern may relax for a few days early next week, but look at what’s coming for the middle and end of next week…

GFS 2This is a loaded pattern this week and through February.

I’m off work again today, but will see you back on the tube on Tuesday. Have a great evening and take care.

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A Frigid Week Begins

Good Monday, everyone. The week is kicking off with a blast of arctic air invading the bluegrass state. Some of the coldest air in nearly 3 years is pushing in today and the gusty winds will put our wind chill temps into the danger category. We have a few light snow threats early this week with a possible storm by late Thursday and Friday.

Temps today will grow colder as the day wears on as the arctic air seeps in from the northwest. This is an air mass that means business over the next few days. Take a look at the numbers…

NAM 1

That’s a serious blast of cold. Gusty winds are going to make it feel MUCH colder today through Tuesday. Wind chill temps may go below 0 overnight into Tuesday. That’s when you need to limit your time outside.

We’re likely to see a band of light snow or snow showers across parts of the region today. Northern and eastern Kentucky will have the best shot of seeing the flakes.

A clipper will work across the Ohio Valley on Wednesday and this should kick off another round of some light snow.

The system getting the bulk of my attention this week continues to be the one moving our way by late Thursday into Friday. The models continue struggle with how that plays out, but you can definitely see the arctic air showing up much better on the recent runs. Low level arctic air is often the bully on the block and weak to moderate intensity lows have a hard time dislodging it.

The system racing in from the southwest later this week is likely to run into that cold and take the path of least resistance. The GFS Ensembles continue to show this…

GFS 2

The GFS had been showing a low cutting toward the Great Lakes. The last model run decided that wasn’t going to work and now takes the low into southern Ky before giving way to another low to our southeast. The blue line on the maps below show the 32 degree line…GFS

I still think the GFS is too far north with the track of the low, but that solution isn’t impossible. Taken verbatim… Vanilla Ice would be singing around here on Friday. Whatever the storm brings… it may very well unleash the first true upslope snows of the season behind it.

The UKMET shows a stronger system passing to our south and east…UKMET

Btw… those maps show the surface charts on top of the 500mb charts. Just wanted to let you know that’s not showing temps.

I will have another update later today. Have a great Dr. Martin Luther King Day and take care.

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