Daily Archives: January 22, 2013

Watching The Late Week Winter Storm

Good Tuesday evening. Your friendly weatherdude got all dressed up with nowhere to go today. I showed up at work and started making maps before I realized my mini vacation had one more day left. Yep… I actually did that. Regardless, I’m always working for you guys here on the blog. :)

I’m tracking two winter weather makers this week and the first one arrives late Wednesday into Wednesday night. The NAM and Hi Res NAM are very impressed with this system…

NAM 1

Those two models would put down an inch or two of snow across parts of central and eastern Kentucky.

The next system is a developing winter storm taking aim at the state Thursday night into Friday. The HPC has outlined much of the commonwealth in the risk for 4″ or more of snow…HPCIn addition to the snow threat, there is the potential for sleet and freezing rain for some areas. Odds favor this being mainly a snow maker as I believe the cold air is going to stand its ground. The question becomes… how much moisture will this system be able to produce? This is where we are seeing some model disagreement and that’s the ONLY thing I want to get ironed out before going into Threat mode.

A general 2″-4″ snowfall appears to be a safe bet for a lot of areas. That said… I see the potential for a lot more, as well.

Computer models will often show something for several days in a row before giving a quick head fake in the 2-4 day out window.

The potential for a winter storm is VERY MUCH on the table for Friday. I want to get a better handle on precipitation amounts before going into threat mode. That may come later tonight or Wednesday.

Have a great evening and take care.

162 Comments

Tracking The Winter Storm Potential

Good Tuesday, everyone. You guys have been asking for arctic air and mother nature is bringing out the big guns today. But, is there anything worse than frigid temps with a bare ground? Don’t answer that… it’s a rhetorical question. We’re going to try to change that later in the week as a winter storm heads toward the bluegrass state. I am very likely to upgrade to Threat before this day is over.

Let’s start with where we are today and move forward.

Temps this morning are in the high single digits and low teens with a wind chill value from 0 to -10 for some areas. That’s in the danger zone, so don’t overdo it if you are outside early today. Highs this afternoon will range from the upper teens in the north to 25 in the west and far south. The wind won’t be as strong, but it will add to the cold feel to the air.

A clipper will dive southeastward into the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. This will bring a swath of light snow and flurries into the state. Highs Wednesday will be in the 20s.

That system will reinforce the arctic air across the Ohio Valley and that’s going to have a big impact on the track of the developing winter storm later this week. That system will develop across the southern plains and roll eastward across the Tennessee Valley.

As expected… the trend on many of the models has been for a much colder storm. The European Model has had a great handle on this setup and continues to show the low passing by just to our south Thursday night into Friday. It then turns it into a monster up the east coast…

EuroI can’t post the snowfall map from the European Model, but it shows a widespread snowstorm across the state with some areas up to 8″. I’m not saying that’s accurate… but I’m not saying it isn’t.

The GFS Ensembles continue with a threatening look…

GFS 2

The GFS continues to go colder and has snow, sleet and freezing rain for the entire state…

GFS

The Canadian Model had been cutting a storm toward the Great Lakes. It’s now seeing the arctic air in place and has a much different look by Friday morning…

Canadian

After the storm goes by… northwesterly winds will unleash the first true northwesterly wind driven snow event of the season on Saturday.

Again… an upgrade to Winter Storm Threat is a STRONG possibility later today. Check back for updates.

Make it a great day and take care.

172 Comments