Daily Archives: February 10, 2013

Sunday Evening Update

Good Sunday evening. Showers continue to roll eastward across the state this evening as a cold front slowly inches toward the region. Rain will become much more scattered overnight into Monday as winds begin to gust up. 35-40mph gusts will be possible Monday as colder air settles in by the end of the day.

That colder air will set the stage for the possibility of some wet snow from a southern storm Tuesday night into Wednesday. I still do not have much confidence in how this thing will work out as we have quite the model spread. The European and GFS have trended farther south and weaker with this system, while the NAM is farther north and stronger…

NAM 1

That would bring a swath of accumulating snow to parts of the state with a mix for others. The farther north and stronger solution does have support from the Short Range Ensemble Forecast Model…

GFS

We will see what the overnight and Monday runs say before we get too specific on how much of an impact this storm will have where you live.

Regardless… winter is coming back hard and that’s what we’ve been yelping about for a while. I see others have now joined the party. It’s B.Y.O S… Bring Your Own Snow. :)

The weather for this coming weekend looks wicked with arctic cold, wind and snow. Look at the direct discharge of arctic air diving into our region on the European Model…

Euro

You also see the Euro is blowing up a big storm to our east and northeast. Will that be far enough west to have a significant impact on Kentucky? That remains to be seen, but several snow makers are likely to dive in from the northwest during this time…

CanadianWe will have additional snow threats coming in behind that for the following week.

I will see you guys with another update later tonight. Enjoy the rest of your evening and take care.

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Mid Week Snow Potential Increasing

Good Sunday, everyone. We have a rainy cold front working eastward across the commonwealth today. This front will produce gusty winds and widespread showers through early Monday. This front will also usher in the return of winter and we’re tracking an increasing snow threat for Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Showers will be common across the western part of the state early today. Those rains will then work eastward across the rest of the region this afternoon and evening. Temps will hit the 50s ahead of the front that will slowly work through here on Monday. Winds will gust up along and behind this front as colder air moves in.

We’re getting back into a busy winter pattern and that means the blog will get back to updating more than once a day. That also means I don’t want to get too wordy with this update.

The forecast models continue to develop a storm across the western Gulf of Mexico and head toward the Carolinas Wednesday. A swath of snow will fall to the north and west of that track. Many of the forecast models show that swath cutting right across Kentucky. Here’s the GFS…

GFS

That’s a track that is usually a good one for a wet snowfall around here. The NAM run (as of this writing) only went out to Wednesday morning and showed a much more robust snow maker pushing in from the west…

NAM Snowfall

At this point, I feel fairly confident of a swath of accumulating snow working through the state Wednesday. Where and how much? Those are questions to tackle over the next few days as the model guidance comes into focus.

We also have to track the arctic plunge and possible end of the week system. Let’s take ‘em one at a time for now. ;)

I will have another update later today. Have a great Sunday and take care.

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