Daily Archives: February 12, 2013

NAM vs GFS

Good Tuesday afternoon. We have quite the model battle going on between the GFS and the NAM with the Wednesday storm. The GFS has much less precipitation and is weaker with the low, while the NAM is stronger with the low and has more precipitation.

The end result…

GFS Snowfall Forecast

GFS SnowfallNAM Snowfall Forecast

NAM Snow

The NAM says we start as rain then dynamic cooling kicks in late morning into the afternoon and switches the rain over to a period of moderate to heavy snow. The weaker solution of the GFS says no dynamic cooling gets involved so it’s mainly a rain/snow mix with a period of light snow.

The truth is likely in between these two solutions, but the NAM smoked the GFS on the northeastern blizzard a few days ago. Of course… most models smoked the GFS on that storm.

On a related note… the Canadian and NOGAPS models continue to show a major winter storm around here this weekend. I guess we will see.

Updates coming later today and on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm. Take care.

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Watching A Wintry Wednesday

Good Tuesday to one and all. We have a storm system that will usher in wet snow and a rain/snow mix for Wednesday. This will be the beginning of the return of winter that will dominate the rest of the month, and may hang tough into early March.

The track of the storm Wednesday is one that is usually good for accumulating snow across the state. You can see that here on the NAM…

NAM

This storm will be working into an air mass that’s marginally cold enough for snow and will have to fight a warm ground. That said… the NAM still wants to put down some slushy accumulations…

NAM 2Again… this is a marginal temperature system and a mix of rain and snow may be the dominant precipitation type unless some dynamic cooling kicks in.

An arctic front pushes into the state on Friday. This will produce snow showers and flurries along the boundary as winds gust up. We may see a storm develop along this front and produce a more pronounced snow system late Friday into Saturday. Some of the latest runs are going crazy with a huge storm. The Canadian is all in…

Canadian

That would be something close to the B word around here. The NOGAPS looks similar…

nogaps

The GFS Ensembles are trending toward a big storm developing across the eastern part of the country…

GFS

On the flip side of this… the European Model no longer has a storm anywhere across the east. It was going all in on a big storm a few days ago. The European is the leader of the models and it’s hard to get excited when it doesn’t show something. Still… the model is not infallible.

If that low does not develop… snow showers and squalls will become widespread at times this weekend and that should produce some accumulations. Highs will run in the 20s and low in the teens as gusty winds crank up and make it feel even colder.

Updates as needed today. Have a great day and take care.

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