Daily Archives: April 27, 2013

Time posted: 11:41 pm

Rain and Storms Rolling Through

Good Sunday everyone and thanks for making us your home for online weather. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to work across the state today. These will put down some very heavy rains as they roll through. Our attention will then turn toward a busy Kentucky Derby week of weather.

The rounds of storms today will have enough juice to cause some local high water concerns. A general 1″-2″ of rain may fall across much of the state. Some areas may see higher totals and those will be the areas of greatest flooding concerns.

Scattered thunderstorms will hang around into Monday as temps start to head back toward the 70 degree mark. That will set the stage for much warmer air moving in for Tuesday and Wednesday. Thermometers will spike closer to 80 degrees during this time.

The big dip in the jet stream we have been talking about is still on target for later in the week. The models have slowed this system down some and timing differences are to be expected. That same dip will develop into a monster of a closed low that will bring nasty weather to those close to it. Areas directly under the closed low will have the absolute worst of the worst.

Tracking EXACTLY where that closed low tracks will be a tough task for the computer models until a few days out. You will see some wild swings with this system and it’s important not to have forecasts that feature wild bounces with each run.
The latest runs of the models keep the closed low just a bit west of where they have been showing in recent days. Here’s the GFS Ensemble Mean…

GFS

One way or another… this system is likely to have a pretty big impact on Kentucky Derby weekend. The extent of that impact won’t be known for several more days.

Have a great Sunday and take care.

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