Daily Archives: March 2, 2015

Time posted: 7:09 pm

Monday Evening Update

Good evening, gang. Our developing winter storm continues to target the bluegrass state in the coming days. Heavy rain and possible flooding will give way to the potential for significant snow and ice accumulations Wednesday into Thursday.

A Winter Storm Watch and a Flood Watch are out for much of the state…

Here’s the latest information from the Weather Prediction Center…

Tuesday Night-Wednesday

WPC

Wednesday Night-Thursday

WPC 2The GFS seems to be getting a pretty good handle of this system…

GFS GFS 2With the combination of sleet and snow, it makes pinpointing exact amounts tough. Here’s a very early First Call For Sleet and Snowfall…

SPECIAL 2

Still plenty of time to fine tune amounts as this system comes into better focus.

I will have a full update on WKYT-TV at 11pm.

Take care.

 

 

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Time posted: 12:07 pm

Winter Storm Threat

Good Monday afternoon, gang. A significant winter storm is likely to hit the bluegrass state Wednesday into Thursday. This could bring everything from flooding rains to heavy snow and sleet accumulations to our entire region.

I have no changes to the evolution of this expansive system. Heavy rain is likely ahead of an arctic front that sweeps in early Wednesday. Rainfall of 1″-2″ in a short amount of time will be possible and that would be enough to cause some flooding issues.

One thing working to help reduce the flooding risk is the arctic air surging in. That could help freeze some of the runoff, allowing our waterways a better chance to handle the rain. Still, be on guard!

The arctic front then slowly works across the state as waves of low pressure develop along it. There really aren’t going to be any trends to look for in this type a setup. The infamous “northwest trend” isn’t really applicable to this type a storm system.

This has the look of a significant snowstorm and sleetstorm for our region. The NAM (along with the European) continues to lead the way in forecasting both…

NAM NAM 2

The GFS has finally come around to something similar…

GFS Snow GFS Snow 2

The Weather Prediction Center continues to increase the risk for significant snow totals…

WPC

As you can see, significant amounts of snow and sleet are likely from Wednesday through the first half of Thursday. All of that may be falling on top of high water from the previous rains. With temps dropping into the teens from west to east late Wednesday… a significant ice up is likely underneath whatever snow and sleet falls where you live.

Temps on Thursday may not get out of the teens for highs with Friday morning lows possibly heading toward zero or below.

This has the potential to be a HIGH IMPACT winter storm that could cause more issues than what we had a few weeks ago.

I will have the latest on this system on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm and have another update on here later this evening.

Take care.

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Time posted: 1:52 am

From Flooding To A Winter Storm

Good Monday, everyone. As crazy as February was, the first week of March is going to try to top it. We have a series of systems set to impact our region through Thursday and that means a lot of wild weather. Flooding rains and thunder may give way to a significant winter storm across our region.

Let’s start with what we have out there today. Watch for icy roads early this morning as temps drop deep into the 20s. Refreezing may combine with some light snow and freezing drizzle to cause some travel issues.

A warm front will then lift northward across the region on Tuesday. Gusty showers will develop throughout the day as a storm system cranks to our west. That system works toward the Great Lakes and drags a strong arctic front into the region on Wednesday.

Heavy rain and some thunder will be possible just ahead of this boundary. That will be the time to watch for the possibility of flooding. 1″-2″ of rain will be possible just ahead of the front and that would be enough to cause, at least, some local high water problems.

That same arctic front then slows down as it works to the southeast as waves of low pressure develop along it…

Special 2

That’s a great setup for significant amounts of snow and sleet from the Tennessee Valley through the Ohio Valley. The exact placement of this front will be the key on exactly how much of each falls and who gets in on the main action. The NAM only goes through Thursday morning but is all in on the snow and sleet…

NAM 3 NAM 2

The latest European Model indicates a similar swath of heavy snow and sleet…

Euro

A likely upgrade to a Winter Storm Threat comes later today.

Temps by Thursday morning may drop deep into the teens and not rise much at all during the rest of the day. If we can put snow and sleet down, temps by Friday morning will absolutely tank! Zero or below would be a possibility with clear skies and a snowpack. Record lows?

On a more somber note… today marks 3 years since the deadly tornadoes of 2012. Many of us were personally impacted by that fateful day that leveled towns such as West Liberty, Salyersville and East Bernstadt. The live blog we did that day still stirs up a lot of emotion when I go back and read it…  http://kyweathercenter.com/?p=2706

I will have updates later today. Take care.

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