Monthly Archives: October 2016

Time posted: 1:10 am

Nothing Scary About This Halloween

Good Monday and Happy Halloween. The past several years have featured some downright nasty weather on Halloween. From the big wind machine to snowflakes… we’ve had some scary stuff. That is not the case today as the weather is picture perfect. We will talk about today’s nice and look long range to the November changes I’m going to keep beating you over the head with. šŸ™‚

Highs will range from the upper 70s to near 80 in the far west and south, to the mid and upper 60s in the far north and northeast. Winds will be gusty with temps dropping into the mid 50s to low 60s by the end of trick or treat hours.

Near record highs return for Tuesday and Wednesday with upper 70s to low 80s. Winds will be very gusty for the first few days of November.

We get a cold front to slide in from the northwest on Thursday. This will bring the threat for some showers and thunderstorms…

gfs

Winds will be very gusty as seasonal air blows in behind this front. The GFS highs for Friday…

gfs-temps

The weekend weather looks really great with a healthy temp gradient setting up from west to east. Readings in the west should hit the 70s with 60s east.

As we continue to look deeper down the road, we find the same look for the middle and end of November. The indicies continue to point in a much colder direction…

ao

That’s a heck of a +PNA being forecast to go along with a -NAO and a neutral look from the EPO. The strongly negative Arctic Oscillation is forecast to really go into the tank as we get deeper into November. That would indicate some serious blocking over the Arctic, and often signals a cold look in the eastern part of the country as we get into the winter season.

Given the above indicies, one would expect the models to keep latching on, and they are. Watch how theĀ ridge goes up in the west, and blocking forms across Greenland and the Arctic,Ā leading to a deepening trough inĀ the east…

canadian

The illustration above is a textbook example of what the indicies show should happen. This continues to match up well with what the CFS weeklies have been cooking up for a while…

cfs

The operational GFS continues to show a substantial change right around next weekend…

gfs-2

A couple of points to reiterate:

  • The changes start during week two of November, then progress from there for the rest of the month.
  • The above setup can lead to an earlier than normal start to winter across Kentucky and much of the central and eastern part of the country.
  • Last week, I mentioned how the current warm pattern resembles this same time around 1950. Record highs of Halloween were replaced by a historic blizzard and the coldest November temps ever recorded here on that Thanksgiving weekend. No two years are ever exactly alike, but there are some similarities to the current setup and forecast setup with that year.
  • I’ve also found another year from that time frame that matches the current one. 1947 also saw the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)Ā go from strongly positive in September to solidly negative in October. This year has surpassed that as the biggest September-October flip on record. For kicks… September 1947 produced 90 degree temps here. October 1947 had middle 80s into the second half of the month. November 1947 saw a switch to much colder with some snow for the middle and end of the month. The following winter produced brutal cold and snow in January and February.
  • If you think I just throw things out for no reason at all, you are sorely mistaken. I do a ton of weather research. To the young weather folks out there… do your homework and learn (I’m still learning every single day)Ā , and you will go places. It’s not all about computer models, that fancy math class from college or apps. It’s also not about going along with what everybody else is saying. Unfortunately, “consensus forecasting” is killing the weather world right now. You can be original and still be right, people. šŸ™‚

Make it a great day and take care.

13 Comments

Time posted: 1:02 am

Tracking A Weak Cold Front And Talking November

Good Sunday to one and all. We continue to be in a mainly warm and windy pattern for the next several days, butĀ a cold front crashes the summer party later today. It’s provides us with a brief break from the warm weather that returns for early November. After that, things continue to evolve toward a possible earlier than normal start to winter, and the models are picking up on that.

It’s a fairly calm early day, but I have a blowout post ready for you guys.

A weak cold front drops in later this afternoon into the evening with a broken band of showers and thunderstorms. The best chance is across central and eastern Kentucky, where winds will be very gusty…

This continues to set the stage for some slightly cooler air for Halloween. Temps may not get out of the 60s for some areas for afternoon highs. The hi-res NAM even shows upper 50s in the far north and northeast…

nam

The warm air surges back in for Tuesday and Wednesday with upper 70s to low 80s. Record highs may fall.

A potent little cold front swings in here on Thursday with scattered showers, gusty winds and much cooler temperatures…

gfs

The European Model continues to keep a some energy across our region, with showers into early Friday…

euro

Either solution will keep temps in the “near normal” category.

The numbers will bounce back up some next weekend into early the following week. That’s the second week of November, and is the week I’ve been pointing to as seeing the first shot of change. The models are now seeing this. Here’s the European for Election Day…

euro-2

That’s as far out as the model goes, but you can clearly see the cold air diving in here.

The GFS goes out a little farther and here’s what it shows for late Election Day into the following day…

gfs

Check out what the model shows by the weekend of November 12…

gfs-2

Here’s the precipitation type for those two systems…

gfs

And the snowfall map from that same run…

gfs-snow

As always, we take the specifics of those models with a grain of salt. These runs may be rushing things just a little bit, but it’s the trend to watch.

Let’s review how we have set the stage for all this poential: I first gave you guys a heads up back in the summer that some of my analogs had a very fast start to winter. The past few weeks, we started seeing the indicies showing blocking trying to start up. Then the weekly modelĀ forecasts started seeing this. The ensembles followed suit, and now the operational models are seeing it at times.

That “progression” is why my confidence level is up there. Of course, if mother nature doesn’t deliver the goods, getting the progression right doesn’t really matter.

Again, I think the above models are rushing things just a little bit, but have the “theme” of the mid to late month pattern I expect to set up.

Make it a great day and take care.

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Time posted: 2:01 am

A Few Small Changes Before The Bigger Changes

Good Saturday and welcome to Halloween weekend. Temperatures over the next several days will be about as warm as you can get for this time of year. A few record highs may fall at some point along the way. Once past that t, the pattern transitions toward a fast start to winter. Maybe one extreme to the other?

The only issue this weekend could come on Sunday with a shower or two trying to pop. The best chance for that happening is across the north and east during the afternoon and evening…

nam

The models are back to pushing this front into the region, delivering a drop in temps for Halloween. Check out the temperature spread for highs…

gfs-temps

That shows low 80s in the far southwest to upper 50s in the far northeast.

A cold front approaches the region on Thursday, with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Several models show something trying to cut off on top of the region into Friday…

euro

That is certainly a MUCH cooler look from Thursday into Friday, and could even bring some 50s back in here for highs.

I have ZERO changes to the changes I think are coming. This is something I have been yapping about for weeks, and will continue to do so.Ā  This pattern is going to begin to flip colder starting in the second week of November, but not fully kick in until the second half of the month and likely lasting through December.

Every run of the GFS Ensembles show this evolution wellĀ for the second week of the November…

gfs-gif-2

gfs-gif

Even the operational GFS is beginning to hone in on the mid-monthĀ change…

gfs

For fun, If we want to look at the snow aspect from the seasonal models, we find some interesting looking data through the first 10 days or so of December. Here’s the CFS…

cfs

A different seasonal model through the same time…

cfs-2

WeatherBELL

The above is a smoothed average of approximately 50 individual ensembles runs.

As with all things weather, time will tell, but the look of the pattern suggests holiday season winter weather lovers may be happy campers.

Have a great day and take care.

11 Comments

Time posted: 2:06 am

Checking On Changes For November

Good Friday to one and all. The weather pattern this weekend into the first week of November is on the toasty side. As a matter of fact, we could flirt with a record high or two during this time. As all this is going on, the atmosphere is laying the groundwork for a big flip as we get deeperĀ into November.

Thais is something I have talked about for several weeks now, and it’s something I’m growing more confident on.

Let’s start with the indicies and how many of them are showing strong blocking getting established…

blocking

You have the PNA forecast to go strongly positive and that suggests a big ridge up the west coast. The NAOĀ is going in the tank and would suggest blocking over Greenland. The most impressive of the bunch continues to be the Arctic Oscillation (AO). This may wind up being the strongest -AO on record for October. I believe the top three are 2009, 2012 and 2002. Two of those three lead to harsh winters, with 2012 being near normal with several close calls.

The positive EPO and positiveĀ WPO are the big warm drivers from the Pacific, but notice how both trend toward neutral. Get those two to neutral or negative, and look out!

I’ve been showing the flip on some of the weekly models for the middle and end of November. The CFS keeps the deep trough look across the east…

cfs

The weeklies from the JMA are now all over this switch. The first map below is for one full week. The second map shows a full two week average…

jma-1

You can clearly see the progression toward a nice winter look showing up after the first week of November.

The Ensembles are now getting within range of the change and are also picking up on this…

gfs-gif

That is very consistent with what we have been seeing from the weekly seasonal models, and shows what should actually happen based on the indicies. To see this look matching up with some of my analog years… my confidence gets pretty high. Though, I have to be careful not to go full blown “swaggy Chris” on you. šŸ™‚

Make it a great day and take care.

14 Comments

Time posted: 1:21 am

Tracking A Weak Front And Toasty Temps

Good Thursday to one and all. We have a cold front crossing the state today and this front will spark showers, gusty winds and knock temps down some. The drop in temperatures isn’t the big story. The rebound temps for Halloween weekend into early November will steal the show.

Let’s get you caught up on the precious present before getting too far ahead of ourselves. Temps today will drop from west to east as the front moves in. Winds may gust to 35mph at times with scattered showers and a rumble of thunder…

Temps by Friday morning will drop it into the upper 30s to low 40s across central and eastern Kentucky…

canadian

After that, it’s game on toward a very windy and warm weekend. Highs on Saturday should range from 75-80 in many areas.

A weak cold front drops in on Sunday and can produce scattered showers and some thunder. The best chance is across the north. This may also lead to a healthy temperature gradient setting up across the region.

Halloween continues to look warmer and warmer as we get closer. Highs in the 70s with gusty winds. Many record highs for the day are from 1950 and are in the low 80s. To illustrate how the current weather has no impact on the weather for the winter, Thanksgiving weekend of 1950 gave us a blizzard with the coldest November temps ever recorded. That went on to be a harsh winter around here.

Warmer than normal weather, as expected, carries us into the first week of November. Once through this first week, a major pattern shift begins to take place. I will touch more on that with my next update. That may actually come later today, if I can find some free time. It’s about that time of year! šŸ˜‰

Have a good day and take care.

8 Comments