Monthly Archives: November 2016

Time posted: 7:27 pm

Wednesday Evening Update

Good Evening, everyone. Much needed rains continue to press to the east of the state, leaving behind a general 1″-4″ of rains. Now comes the seasonally cold temperatures and the increasing risk for some winter weather.

Temps for the next few days will be about where we should be to open up the month of December. At some point, a rain or snow shower may come calling with the best chance in the northeast. The GFS shows where it thinks a few flakes are possible through Friday…


The next system will come at us in two waves. The first arrives Saturday night into Sunday with some light precipitation. This could start out in the form of some rain, sleet or snow. The GFS gives much of the state a chance at seeing the mix…


The main part of the storm will then come at us late Monday into Tuesday. That should bring another round of heavy rains…


A true arctic front will likely follow that up by late Wednesday into Thursday. This will likely be accompanied by a big storm system, with a secondary low trying to develop somewhere along that boundary as it swings through here.

The Canadian goes wild with that setup…


For fun, here’s the snowfall forecast from that particular run…


The chances for snow will be figured out as we get closer, but the amount of arctic air diving into the country is impressive…


Overall, the very cold signal continues to show up on the Ensembles for December. Watch out the air across the country has a direct pipeline to Alaska…


Have a great evening and take care.


Time posted: 2:16 am

Tracking Rain and The Early December Setup

Good Wednesday, folks. Heavy rain and thunderstorms continue to push across the eastern half of Kentucky today. This action may cause some local high water issues as we wrap up November. December is ready to kick off with more action and a distinct turn to winter.

The southeastern part of the state has a chance to see some local flooding issues through the first half of today, while the better weather slowly takes over for the rest of the state. Here are your tracking toys to start the day…

Seasonally cold air filters in from west to east later today. That sets the stage for normal temps to begin December with highs in the low and middle 40s over the next few days.

This brings us to the weekend and system that’s looking more and more like a player. The European Model is back to showing a healthy storm system from late Saturday through early Monday…


Taken verbatim, that’s a light wintry mix to start with heavy rain taking over from there.

The GFS is heading in that direction (shocking)…


That actually starts this out as a period of light snow early Sunday…


The Canadian is more of a blend of the GFS and European, and also shows a wintry mix possible on Sunday…


The first true arctic air mass of the season is likely to descend into the country early next week, and should impact our weather in about a week from today. The European Model has this arctic front working in here with a healthy snow maker developing along it…


We still have a lot of time to see what kind of snow, if any, this arctic front brings our way. But, the air behind this is cold for much of the country…


The GFS is advertising a similar shot of air, but it’s introducing it with a bigger storm system…


It’s pretty amazing to look at the pattern for this December and compare it to the past two warmer than normal Decembers. There are zero similarities… Like none.

I will throw you another update or two later today. Make it a good one and take care.


Time posted: 7:27 pm

Severe Weather Threat Tracker

Good evening, gang. We continue to see a potent storm system taking aim at our region tonight into Wednesday. This will bring the threat for strong to severe storms and local high water issues to the region during this time.

The threats:

  • Damaging wind will be the primary player across the region. The greatest risk continues to be across southern Kentucky tonight.
  • There is some decent spin showing up in the atmosphere and that could lead to a tornado or two across south central Kentucky.
  • Heavy rainfall of 1″ to local 3″ amounts will be possible. That can lead to local high water issues.
  • A second line of storms may fire up across the southeast early Wednesday and a few of those could be strong.

Before I talk about the weekend and next week, I have you all set to do some tracking…

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

The weekend system continues to be an enigma with the European and GFS trending toward a “meet me in the middle” solution. The latest Euro has a weaker system with rain and snow around here Saturday night and Sunday…


The NAVY Model has more of a similar look to the Canadian I posted earlier today…


Lots of variables still at play with the weekend system, so hang tight a few days to see exactly what happens.

One thing that I have a greater confidence on is a surge of arctic air showing up by the middle of next week. Look at this air surging in here on the European Model…



The GFS sees it too at the exact same time…


Have a great evening and take care.

1 Comment