Monthly Archives: November 2016

Time posted: 7:27 pm

Wednesday Evening Update

Good Evening, everyone. Much needed rains continue to press to the east of the state, leaving behind a general 1″-4″ of rains. Now comes the seasonally cold temperatures and the increasing risk for some winter weather.

Temps for the next few days will be about where we should be to open up the month of December. At some point, a rain or snow shower may come calling with the best chance in the northeast. The GFS shows where it thinks a few flakes are possible through Friday…

gfs

The next system will come at us in two waves. The first arrives Saturday night into Sunday with some light precipitation. This could start out in the form of some rain, sleet or snow. The GFS gives much of the state a chance at seeing the mix…

gfs-3

The main part of the storm will then come at us late Monday into Tuesday. That should bring another round of heavy rains…

gfs-5

A true arctic front will likely follow that up by late Wednesday into Thursday. This will likely be accompanied by a big storm system, with a secondary low trying to develop somewhere along that boundary as it swings through here.

The Canadian goes wild with that setup…

canadian

For fun, here’s the snowfall forecast from that particular run…

canadian

The chances for snow will be figured out as we get closer, but the amount of arctic air diving into the country is impressive…

euro

Overall, the very cold signal continues to show up on the Ensembles for December. Watch out the air across the country has a direct pipeline to Alaska…

gfs-animation-2

Have a great evening and take care.

4 Comments

Time posted: 2:16 am

Tracking Rain and The Early December Setup

Good Wednesday, folks. Heavy rain and thunderstorms continue to push across the eastern half of Kentucky today. This action may cause some local high water issues as we wrap up November. December is ready to kick off with more action and a distinct turn to winter.

The southeastern part of the state has a chance to see some local flooding issues through the first half of today, while the better weather slowly takes over for the rest of the state. Here are your tracking toys to start the day…

Seasonally cold air filters in from west to east later today. That sets the stage for normal temps to begin December with highs in the low and middle 40s over the next few days.

This brings us to the weekend and system that’s looking more and more like a player. The European Model is back to showing a healthy storm system from late Saturday through early Monday…

euro

Taken verbatim, that’s a light wintry mix to start with heavy rain taking over from there.

The GFS is heading in that direction (shocking)…

gfs

That actually starts this out as a period of light snow early Sunday…

gfs-snow

The Canadian is more of a blend of the GFS and European, and also shows a wintry mix possible on Sunday…

canadian

The first true arctic air mass of the season is likely to descend into the country early next week, and should impact our weather in about a week from today. The European Model has this arctic front working in here with a healthy snow maker developing along it…

euro-2

We still have a lot of time to see what kind of snow, if any, this arctic front brings our way. But, the air behind this is cold for much of the country…

euro-3

The GFS is advertising a similar shot of air, but it’s introducing it with a bigger storm system…

gfs

It’s pretty amazing to look at the pattern for this December and compare it to the past two warmer than normal Decembers. There are zero similarities… Like none.

I will throw you another update or two later today. Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 7:27 pm

Severe Weather Threat Tracker

Good evening, gang. We continue to see a potent storm system taking aim at our region tonight into Wednesday. This will bring the threat for strong to severe storms and local high water issues to the region during this time.

The threats:

  • Damaging wind will be the primary player across the region. The greatest risk continues to be across southern Kentucky tonight.
  • There is some decent spin showing up in the atmosphere and that could lead to a tornado or two across south central Kentucky.
  • Heavy rainfall of 1″ to local 3″ amounts will be possible. That can lead to local high water issues.
  • A second line of storms may fire up across the southeast early Wednesday and a few of those could be strong.

Before I talk about the weekend and next week, I have you all set to do some tracking…

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

The weekend system continues to be an enigma with the European and GFS trending toward a “meet me in the middle” solution. The latest Euro has a weaker system with rain and snow around here Saturday night and Sunday…

euro

The NAVY Model has more of a similar look to the Canadian I posted earlier today…

navy

Lots of variables still at play with the weekend system, so hang tight a few days to see exactly what happens.

One thing that I have a greater confidence on is a surge of arctic air showing up by the middle of next week. Look at this air surging in here on the European Model…

euro-2

Wowza!

The GFS sees it too at the exact same time…

gfs

Have a great evening and take care.

1 Comment

Time posted: 12:25 pm

Strong To Severe Storms Possible Tonight

Good afternoon, gang. We have a potent storm system taking aim at the region this evening into Wednesday. As the event draws closer, the threat for strong to severe storms is on the increase. Heavy rainfall is also likely across the central and east.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed  much of central and south central parts of the state in a Marginal to Slight Risk for severe weather…

The damaging wind potential is far and away the greatest threat, but there may be just enough spin for a tornado or two in the south.

In terms of placement of these storms and the general heavy rains, the models are now much closer together. The NAM is still farthest west and wettest…

nam

The GFS has been abysmal with this system from the get-go and, just hours away, it’s still trying to get caught up…

gfs-rain

The Canadian continues to look much more like the NAM…

canadian

Local high water issues will be possible overnight into Wednesday.

Colder weather then flows into town by Thursday and Friday. From there we watch for a potential weekend storm system. The GFS continues to be an outlier with nothing showing up on the model. The Canadian has a slightly colder look with rain and snow…

canadian

It still leaves a piece of that system hanging around the Gulf. We will see what the European Model shows here in an hour or two.

I will have another update later today. Until then, I leave you with your tracking toys for the day…

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

Enjoy the nice weather until the storms arrive. Take care.

4 Comments

Time posted: 1:59 am

Tracking Another Surge Of Rain

Good Tuesday, everyone. Monday’s system brought the goods to the bluegrass state with heavy rains and high winds. Bowling Green had an incredible 70mph wind gust. Wow! After a mild break in the action today, another rain maker surges back in here tonight and Wednesday.

The models continue to point toward central and eastern Kentucky getting the heaviest rainfall from this system, but they differ in placement.

The NAM continues to be the most robust…

nam

The GFS is too wimpy and far east and that continues to be a bias of this model…

gfs-rain

The Canadian looks more like the NAM…

canadian

It should be noted the NAM has a pocket of high winds tonight across central and eastern Kentucky. Given the overachieving winds from the last round, this will need to be watched. Especially of we can spawn some thunderstorms.

Let’s track whatever is coming later today…

Seasonally cold air filters in behind this system for Thursday and Friday. There’s a small chance for a rain or snow shower on Friday. But, that’s not the focus of the forecast. We save that for a system coming out of the southwest this weekend and early next week.

The European Model still has a very potent storm, but not as strong as the prior run…

euro

The Canadian Model is trending closer to what the European has been showing lately, but isn’t all the way there…

canadian

It brings one piece of the energy out this weekend, then leaves something meandering around the gulf coast. If all that energy coms out at once, you will get something like what the European Model has been showing.

I would like to show the GFS, but it just does not have a good handle on this whole situation. Unfortunately, your weather apps and human weather apps all rely on this model and nothing else. Sigh.

I will hook you up with another update or two later today. Make it a good one and take care.

9 Comments