Daily Archives: November 9, 2016

Time posted: 7:29 pm

Wednesday Evening Update

Good evening, gang. Here’s hoping the blog finds each of you doing well as we head into a cold overnight. The pattern continues to flip toward a colder one, and the setup into next week is looking much more active to boot.

We have set the stage for the cold shot coming this weekend, so let’s look down the road a bit.

Next week is going to find several systems working across the country, each of them with the potential to amplify the pattern and turn into a big storm system.

The first system may not do much but touch off some sprinkles and clouds on Monday…

euro

The next system digs in a little more later Tuesday into Wednesday…

euro-2

That tries to blow up into something much bigger, but shows the surface low too far to our east. That’s a nice blast of chill.

The next system is forecast to become the biggie of the bunch by the end of next week. Here’s the European Model…

euro-3

The GFS is just a bit more progressive with it, but sings a very similar song…

gfs

To fully understand how active that pattern is, take a look at the daily 500mb height anomalies on the European Model…

euro-gif

That’s a look that can produce a big winter storm across the country. That’s week 3 of November and is in the window I have talked about having much more of a winter look.

Week 4 is Thanksgiving week. Here’s the latest GFS…

gfs-2

Have a great evening and take care.

6 Comments

Time posted: 1:58 am

Chilly Air Blows In

Good Wednesday to one and all. Most of the region picked up some much needed rains last night. That will go a  long way toward helping firefighters get control of the forest fires across the east and southeast. Now comes a chilly blast of air settling in today, with a colder shot taking aim at the region this weekend.

The day starts with some leftover showers in the east as low clouds hang tough. Those clouds may keep temps in the 40s across the southeast, with low 50s in central Kentucky and middle 50s in the west.

Temperatures by Thursday morning will drop into the low 30s in most areas. Thursday afternoon looks really good with temps in the 50s with plenty of sunshine.

Veterans Day looks very windy as a cold front drops in from the northwest. That front will bring the coldest air of the season for the weekend. Both Saturday and Sunday should feature below normal temps for much of the eastern part of the country…

gfs

Highs Saturday will range from the upper 40s in the east to the 50s in the west. Skies look mostly clear and that should be able to give us our first good freeze by Sunday morning…

gfs-temps-1

As someone who has been suffering from a ridiculous fall allergy season, I say bring it on.

The pattern next week will throw a couple of systems our way. The latest trend of the models is to keep the first system from really digging in here, as it has another storm crashing in behind it. Still, the European Model does this for Tuesday and Wednesday…

euro-2

A few days later, this shows up…

euro-3

I haven’t had a chance to really focus on the medium range because I’m busy putting together the winter forecast for WKYT-TV. That should be on at some point next week. As soon as I know the exact day, I will let you guys know.

I’ll try go update things later today.

Make it a good one and take care.

8 Comments