Daily Archives: November 14, 2016

Time posted: 7:23 pm

Looking Toward The Weekend

Good evening, folks. I don’t have a ton of time, but I wanted to make sure to update things for the massive changes on the way for the weekend.

A massive storm is going to bring blizzard conditions to the Rockies and the upper Midwest. As that storm cranks up, it will drag a strong cold front into our region Friday night and early Saturday. Highs ahead of this head toward 70-75 for Thursday and Friday. Gusty winds will cause all kinds of issues for the forest fires in the east.

As that front slams through here, showers and thunderstorms will sweep through. That unleashes some very cold temps. The below maps are for Friday morning, Saturday morning and Sunday morning…

euro-2

Here’s that broken down a little more…

euro

That strong northwesterly wind flow would unleash the first flakes of the season across much of our region.

The Canadian takes it to the extreme with a much stronger secondary system closer to Kentucky…

canadian

That would deliver more than the first flakes of snow around here. Again, it’s the extreme.

I mentioned in my last post that the GFS was lost, but it’s finding it’s way home again…

gfs

That shows snow showers and flurries for much of central and eastern Kentucky.

Moral of the weather story: We’re going from the 70s on Friday to winter weather for the weekend. That winter weather may give us the first flakes of the season and highs in the 30s. Wind chills may be deep into the teens at times. How’s that for a drastic change?

The models are showing an overrunning system trying to get going by Tuesday of next week. Here’s the GFS showing some snow and rain…

gfs-2

The longer range look continues to advertise winter trying to take hold of the pattern. A couple of systems may cause issues Thanksgiving week. The GFS Ensembles temperature departure in Celsius for late Thanksgiving weekend…

gfs-temps-2

I will update things later tonight. Have a great day and take care.

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Time posted: 1:58 am

A Wild Temp Swing Ahead

Good Monday, folks. A brand spanking new work week is kicking off with fairly nice weather across the bluegrass state. This pleasant pattern isn’t going to last much longer, as a wild change comes our way late this week into the upcoming weekend. The temp rise and plunge on the way is impressive to see.

Late week temps will likely surge toward the 70-75 degree range ahead of a massive upper Midwest storm system. That could get the B word thrown around before all is said and done. That system will drag a cold front in here late Friday into early Saturday. VERY gusty winds will be noted as showers and thunderstorms introduce a major temperature crash.

Many of the forecast models develop a stronger storm system along that front just to our northeast. That would help setup a strong northwesterly wind flow that could bring the first flakes of the season in here.

Watch all this play out on the Canadian model…

canadian

Here’s a little closer look at how the northwesterly flow by Sunday can pick up some lake moisture and bring it in here…

canadian-3

That model run does show our first flakes…

canadian-2

In order to get some snow showers and flurries in this setup, you will really need the northwesterly wind to do the trick.

The European Model is similar…

euro

The temperature drop is going to be awesome to see and feel. From way above to way below in less than a day…

euro-2

By Sunday morning, the European Model takes out 850mb temps to -10c…

euro-3

Per that model run, that’s a heck of a shot of cold air coming in here this weekend. If the European Model is correct, temps may go from near 75 on Friday to the upper teens and low 20s for lows by Sunday or Monday mornings.

For those wondering about the GFS, it appears to have lost it’s way again. The calling card of that model is to show something consistently, then lose it for a few days once within a week of the event, the find it again as we get closer.

I will hook you up with another update later today. Make it a good one and take care.

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