Daily Archives: November 16, 2016

Time posted: 7:49 pm

Wednesday Evening Update

Good evening, gang. I’m dropping by for a very quick update to talk about the wild weather ride we’re going on for the next few days.

Highs Thursday and Friday reach the 70s with winds on the increase.

Our big change arrives Friday night with gusty showers, and a rumble of thunder working from west to east. This is ahead of a strong cold front that will knock 40 degrees off our temps from Friday afternoon to Saturday morning. From there, it’s a strong northwesterly wind flow that can bring some snowflakes to parts of the region.

The models have settled in and look now look similar to what we have been thinking. The Canadian Model has finally come to grips with reality…

canadian

That looks a lot like the European Model…

euro

The GFS is still just a bit too progressive, but has the overall theme correct. It has the cold air catching the back edge of the line of rain, and switching that over to a period of a mix of some light snow by Saturday morning. After that swings east, gusty northwesterly winds usher in a few snowflakes…

gfs-2

The best chance to see the first flakes of the season will be across the central and eastern parts of the state.

Highs this weekend will generally range from the upper 30s to low 40s, but gusty winds will make it feel MUCH colder.

We will talk more about all this, and start to focus more on Thanksgiving week later tonight.

Enjoy your evening and take care.

Leave a comment

Time posted: 2:11 am

All Eyes On The Weekend

Good Wednesday, folks. It’s full steam ahead toward the weekend and the increasing potential for our first taste of winter weather across Kentucky. While my overall thoughts on this have not changed, some of the model trends are for a little more robust system taking shape.

Before we get to the weekend, the current weather is absolutely gorgeous. Highs today will be into the 60s, with the 70s ready to pounce for Thursday and Friday. This warm surge of air will be accompanied by very windy weather that can boost gusts to 30mph or better on Friday.

This action is ahead of a strong cold front working into the region with showers and a rumble of Friday night thunder. That looks to bring a decent drink of water to the region. Cold air will surge in behind the front with temps dropping 20 degrees in just an hour or two.  By Saturday morning, some wet snowflakes may be mixing in with the rain across central and eastern Kentucky. Wind gusts of 35-40mph are also possible.

The upper level system diving in here is going to cutoff somewhere just to our east this weekend. Exactly where that happens is still in question, and can mean the difference between just a few flakes or something a little more.

The latest European Model has that system closing off across West Virginia and Pennsylvania with the surface low just east of that…

euro

Taken verbatim, that would give the eastern half of the state some snow showers and flurries through Sunday night. It would also put a hurt on the mountains of West Virginia and Pennsylvania.

The GFS is the most progressive of the models, but that’s an inherent bias of this model. Still, it shows some wraparound snow showers and squalls across central and eastern Kentucky with heavier amounts in the mountains to our east…

gfs-snow

The GFS and European Models basically give us the novelty of seeing the first snowflakes of the season Saturday into Sunday. Of the two, the Euro has a little more potential.

The Canadian model… ahhh, the Canadian Model. The latest run of this model has a much farther west and south closed upper low…

canadian

That develops a stronger secondary low that would have a much greater impact on the region…

canadian

The Canadian Model snowfall map is certainly NSFWW (Not Safe For Weather Weenies), and likely very wrong…

canadian-2

Again, that is likely very, very, very wrong. But, it’s interesting to see a model from 3 days away showing something that crazy.

It will be fun watching to see where this upper level can close off. As of now, I’m not seeing anything more than the first flakes of the season dancing about the air for some folks across Kentucky.

Another storm system makes a run at us for the busy Thanksgiving travel period. Here’s the GFS from Tuesday night through Thanksgiving Day…

gfs-2

I will hook you up with another post later today. I might throw in an extra one if I see something worth it with the midday model runs.

Have a wonderful Wednesday and take care.

8 Comments