Daily Archives: November 20, 2016

Time posted: 7:46 pm

Sunday Evening Thoughts

Good evening, gang. Thanksgiving week is upon us and the pattern is revving up and about to kick it into overdrive as we close out the month and head into December. Given how quiet things have been, this is long overdue!

My time is short, so let’s get after it.

We have a rain maker coming at us for the busy travel day on Wednesday. Leftover chilly showers will carry into Thanksgiving morning…

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The European Model continues to be stronger with the Friday system…

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Other models are nowhere near as potent with that system, so we shall see how that works out. Given the amount of systems working across the country, anything is possible with that.

The next system will quickly try to zip in here by Sunday, and has a much colder look…

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After that, the models all agree on a monster storm system working across the country to close out the month. This is still 10 days out, so don’t get caught up on location and strength of this. Here’s the European Model…

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The GFS is similar…

gfs-2

A quick look at the upper level pattern suggests those are likely overamplified and too far west. Instead of cutting toward the Lakes, that may be something that runs the Apps. Still a loooooong time from now.

December temps on the CFS now looks like this…

cfs

With the major block forming across Canada, that’s exactly what you should be seeing across the lower 48.

The same run goes wild on snow into the first few days of January…

cfs-2

I will see you tonight for an update. Enjoy the evening and take care.

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Time posted: 2:11 am

A Busy Thanksgiving Week

Good Sunday, everyone. Baby, it’s cold outside is more than a popular song for this time of year, it pretty much describes the weather we are seeing out there this weekend. It looks like the chill will hang tough into Thanksgiving week, with a pretty busy setup on the way.

The weather out there today is cold, but quiet. The start of the big week looks chilly, but quiet.

That changes quickly just in time for Planes, Trains and Automobiles Wednesday. 🙂 Rain will increase and become likely, with showers lingering into early Thanksgiving Day…

canadian

Temps on Turkey Day will be chilly with highs in the low and middle 40s for many…

gfs-temps

Black Friday shoppers will have to watch a weak system diving in here from the northwest. This could bring some light precipitation with it…

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Temps look pretty chilly for shopping with 20s to start and upper 30s and low 40s for afternoon highs.

Did I mention our pattern is getting very active? Another system will sweep in here to end the Thanksgiving holiday weekend…

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That’s a much colder setup that can deliver rain or snow to our part of the world next Sunday and Monday. The trend with that system is for colder air showing up. Let’s see if that continues in the coming days.

The overall pattern is likely to fire up a big storm system across the country to close out the month of November. The European Model on November 29 has a rather threatening look to it. Watch how the model shows a storm developing across the Texas Panhandle and dropping toward Louisiana…

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Interesting.

I will update things later today. Make it a sensational Sunday and take care.

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