Daily Archives: November 21, 2016

Time posted: 7:35 pm

Monday Evening Update

Good Monday evening, folks. We’re get ready for another cold night ahead as Thanksgiving Day creeps closer and closer. As it does so, the weather pattern continues to get pretty darn busy. Here’s a quick breakdown of where things stand.

Our rain maker arrives quickly from west to east Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. If that can get in here quick enough, I could see a few areas of sleet across northern Kentucky. The latest rainfall forecast from the GFS shows close to an inch of rain in the west and north through Thanksgiving morning…

gfs-rain

Most of that rain moves away by Noon on Thanksgiving, but another fast-moving system moves our way by late on Black Friday. The models keep going back and forth on whether or not this can deliver some precipitation to our region. The latest GFS says yes…

gfs-2

That will deliver gusty winds and a much colder day for Saturday.

The late Sunday and Monday storm system continues to look stronger and stronger as we get closer…

gfs-3

While mainly a rain and wind maker, there’s a chance we could get some flakes on the tail end of that.

The stronger that storm is, the better the chance the one coming in after it takes a farther south and east track as we close out November.

Here’s the GFS showing rain and snow…

gfs-4

The European Model…

euro

To illustrate just how busy this pattern is, check out how the block in eastern Canada keeps sending deepening troughs moving from west to east across the country next week…

euro-2

Wild model swings are likely with each storm system, as there is so much going on in the pattern. This looks like a very windy setup that can bring everything from snow to thunder (maybe both?) to our region as we end November and start December.

One thing is for sure, this is NOT the late summer and fall pattern that left us so dry and warm.

Have a great evening and take care.

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Time posted: 2:01 am

Talkin’ Turkey Week Weather

Good Monday, everyone. Our Thanksgiving week is off and running on a seasonally cold note across our part of the weather world. As we gear up for the big day, we have several systems to track as the overall pattern ramps it up several notches.

Highs today are generally in the 40s after a very cold start in the upper teens and low 20s.

Tuesday will find clouds increasing with highs in the upper 40s and low 50s. These clouds are ahead of a quick-moving storm system that will bring rain to the region on Wednesday. This system will weaken the farther east it gets, and that’s reflected in the rainfall forecast…

gfs-rain

Thanksgiving Day will start with low clouds and damp conditions, but should end with drying skies taking over. Highs should be in the 40s.

The Friday system continues to look a littler farther north, but keeps the chill around for Black Friday shoppers…

gfs-3

From this point, we REALLY start to see how the overall pattern starts to turn cold and stormy across much of the country. Watch how the blocking over Canada forces a deepening trough across the country, with several systems working through it…

gfs-gif

The first one comes late this coming weekend into early next week. As usual, there are some model differences, but this one looks colder.

GFS

gfs-4

European Model

euro

In my Sunday evening post, I mentioned how I thought the models were too far west in showing a monster storm next wee, and that it may turn into more of an Apps track.  Here’s what the GFS shows…

gfs-6

That takes a weaker low into the Ohio Valley with another low forming along the Appalachian mountains and bombing out In the northeast.

The European Model is similar with much more of a winter look around here…

euro-2

That would be for the 29th and 30th to round out the month of November.

Me thinks we are getting close to 3 a day updates. 😉

Speaking of updates, I will hook you up later today. Make it a great Monday and take care.

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