Daily Archives: November 22, 2016

Time posted: 7:35 pm

Tuesday Evening Update

Good evening, gang. I’m dropping by for a very quick update on the pattern as we roll ahead. We have some showers moving in here for our busy travel day on Wednesday. This kicks off a very active pattern that can give us more precipitation over the next 2 weeks than we have seen in the past 2 months.

The showers moving in here late tonight may start as a touch of sleet in the north. That’s something to watch for…

The rain increases from west to east tomorrow afternoon into the evening. The heaviest rains will fall in the north and west.

Leftover showers will be possible into Thanksgiving and a lot of clouds will hold tough through the rest of the holiday weekend.

A weak front arrives late Friday with gusty winds and just a small shower chance. Seasonally chilly air blows in for Saturday…

gfs

The next system really winds up from late Sunday into Monday and will throw a lot of rain and wind our way ahead of it. As it cranks up to our north, temps crash into early Tuesday with a mix possible behind that…

euro

You can already see the next system gathering steam across the Texas Panhandle. That one could be more of a winter weather maker by Wednesday and Thursday.

There is just so much going on with these systems diving in here, that the models are going to show some wild swings over the next few weeks. Look at the amped up upper levels next week…

gfs-3

All of this fits the blocking pattern setting up. The NAO and AO are forecast to go in the tank, and the EPO is joining the fun for the first time in a loooooong time…

 

ao

That should spell a very fun and active December for much of the country.

I will update things later tonight. Enjoy the evening and take care.

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Time posted: 1:54 am

Breaking Down A Busy Forecast

Good Tuesday to one and all. It’s another seasonally chilly day taking shape out there today, but all eyes are on the loooooong Thanksgiving holiday weekend forecast. We have several systems set to impact our weather during this time. This is part of pattern that is kicking it up a notch or ten.

A week and a half ago, there was a national weather story talking about how there was no winter weather in sight across the country. Since then, a major blizzard hit from the Rockies to Minnesota, dozens of college football games over the weekend had snow covered fields, flakes flying all the way into the southern Appalachian Mountains and now comes historic lake effect snows into parts of New York and Pennsylvania…

I saw a report of 40″ of snow near Oswego, New York. Wow!

Back here in the bluegrass state, rain arrives from west to east later tonight and early Wednesday. If that gets into northern Kentucky early enough, it can start as a touch of sleet. Showers should put down some nice totals across the region, with the heaviest amounts in the north and west. Temps will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

Thanksgiving Day will have lots of clouds and a shower or two hanging around the central and east. Seasonal temps will be noted.

Another system works in here late Friday and could bring another shower chance…

gfs

There will be a lot of clouds around this entire holiday weekend as temps stay fairly seasonal.

This pattern is going to continue to throw storm systems our way every couple of days. The next one on the GFS arrives late Sunday into Monday…

gfs-5

The next one following that up for late Monday into Tuesday…

gfs

That sets up the following system for a much farther south and east track for the final day of November…

gfs-3

That particular GFS run has a pretty good snow track for us as we close November and open December.

The GFS runs through the next few weeks and keeps additional big systems swinging in here. Check out the total liquid precipitation during that time…

gfs-rain

Talk about a pattern going from 0 to 60! Let’s see how all this evolves, but the blocking developing in Canada is going to cause some wild weather across the country. Every form of precipitation is on the table over the next few weeks. Yippee?

See you guys later for another update. Enjoy the day and take care.

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