Daily Archives: November 27, 2016

Time posted: 7:18 pm

Sunday Evening Update

Good evening, folks. We have a lot of active weather rolling toward the bluegrass state, and this will bring more rain to us in the next 3 days than what we’ve had the past 2 months or so… Combined! This happens as we see the models start flexing some winter muscle into December.

The first round of rain arrives in the west later tonight and rolls east from there through Monday. The heaviest totals with this round will be across the central and western parts of the state..

special-2

Winds will also be VERY gusty late Monday afternoon into Monday night. Gusts of 40mph will be possible in a few spots.

The next system develops and moves across the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. This time, the heaviest corridor of rain will be across the eastern half of the state…

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Now, all those lines aren’t totally set in stone as the actual weather doesn’t follow borders. This is a general 1″-3″ rainfall coming to the entire region from Monday through Wednesday. Locally higher amounts are very possible.

Seasonally cold air filters in behind this second system as we roll into the first few days of December. Some low clouds can spit out some rain or snow showers if we can get a true northwesterly flow for a time by the end of the week.

The next system cutting off across Texas and the four corners is truly an enigma for the models. With a developing -EPO, systems like that usually get kicked east and that’s exactly the trend of the day. The European Model brings a ton of rain in here next weekend, with a wet snow threat on the backside of the system…

euro

If that system works out like the Euro shows, high water issues would be possible. Taken verbatim, the European Model shows some 5″+ amounts over the next week.

The GFS is a littler slower and weaker with that system, but also kicks it out…

gfs

The repercussions of that system kicking east, instead of hanging in the west, is for the much colder look to take over behind it. Watch the systems diving in on the GFS…

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The past few runs of the GFS are now locking into what the ensembles have been showing… Arctic air getting into the country…

gfs-temps

Of course, we take time and numbers with a grain of salt from a week or two out. But, the arctic air getting into the country fits the pattern and fits my winter forecast. December 1983 and December 1962 show up as some of the main analogs on the GFS. Both of those featured temps going well below zero during the month and led us into harsh winters. The winter of 1983/84 was my personal top analog for the winter forecast.

For even more eye candy (and nothing more than that), I present to you the 18z GFS two weeks from now…

gfs-4

I’ll see you guys back here for the late night update. Enjoy your evening and take care.

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Time posted: 2:01 am

Heavy Rain and Gusty Winds Ahead

Good Sunday, everyone. We have a couple of big storm systems set to impact our weather as we get ready to close out the month of November. These two will combine to bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds to the entire region. This type of setup is long overdue,

Clouds will increase out there today as temperatures spike into the upper 40s to low 50s in the east and mid 50s west.

Rain arrives quickly from west to east on Monday and becomes heavy at times into Monday night and early Tuesday…

gfs-3

Some thunder and lightning will be possible with that batch of heavy rain moving in. We will also have to watch for a pocket of high winds rolling across the state…

nam

Monday night could be a rough night for light sleepers!

We catch a windy break in the action by Tuesday afternoon and evening, but the next system starts to move in by Tuesday night and early Wednesday. This should bring another round of moderate to heavy rain to the region…

GFS…

gfs-4

Canadian…

canadian-3

Both show much colder air wrapping in behind that system, with an outside shot of some flakes in the opening hours of December.

As far as the rainfall numbers go, I still like a general 1″-3″ (locally higher amounts) Monday through Wednesday. Something like what the GFS is showing…

gfs-snow

Seasonally cold air then hangs tough for the remainder of the week, with the weekend forecast still open for discussion. The models can’t figure out what to do with energy across Texas and the southwestern part of the country. Some runs hold this back, others try to bring it out.

The new Canadian for next weekend splits the difference and brings a piece of it out…

canadian-4

Like I said, this is a very busy pattern and I think it is just getting started!

See you guys for another update later today. Enjoy your Sunday and take care.

11 Comments