Daily Archives: November 28, 2016

Time posted: 6:47 pm

Monday Evening Update

Good evening, gang. Heavy rain and high winds are blowing from west to east across the region. This is ahead of the first of two storm systems to impact our weather over the next couple of days. As we track these, some models are suggesting the weekend system could be even bigger with a mix of precipitation falling.

I have no changes to my thoughts on the rain rolling eastward this evening. This will be accompanied by winds that may gust to 50mph at times. This may cause some power hits and take some limbs down, so batten down the hatches.

We catch a break between systems on Tuesday as the weather actually looks really nice. Temps make a run into the low 60s on a gusty southwesterly wind. That next storm will bring rain across the central and east by Tuesday night and early Wednesday. The NAM is the most aggressive with the totals, and farthest west with the heavy rain corridor. Here are the totals for just that time frame…

nam

That’s likely a smidge too far west, but the theme is correct.

Seasonally cold air moves in for the rest of the week, with the potential for a rain or snow shower on a northwesterly flow by Friday.

From there, it’s all eyes on the possibility we get that southwestern energy to eject out in once piece, creating a huge storm system. The European Model has been showing this for the past few runs, but the latest run went a little cray cray. Just look at how this system bombs out from Sunday morning to Monday morning…

euro-2

Here’s the evolution of this storm every 6 hours…

euro

Right now, the European is the lone wolf in showing that strong of a storm system, so I can’t fully endorse it yet. However, if we take that one single fun verbatim: It shows a wintry mix starting here later Saturday with heavy rain and high winds taking over into Sunday. As the low deepens and passes by to our north and northeast, temps crash as high winds continue and wraparound snows move in. That’s not a forecast from me, that’s simply me breaking down what that one model run shows.

Again, the European is currently the only model showing such a robust storm. We shall see how the trend goes over the next few days. It’s not like that potential is a week or two away… it’s this weekend.

ALL models have a very strong signal for cold to severe cold developing across the country in early December. One of the latest ensembles run for late next week is eye popping…

euro-3

By the way… those are 850mb departures… In Celsius!

Buckle up, kiddos!

I will update things later tonight and be tweeting out information with evening heavy rain and winds on @kentuckyweather .

Enjoy the evening and take care.

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Time posted: 2:16 am

Tracking Heavy Rain and High Winds

Good Monday, folks. Some MUCH needed heavy rain is working across the state and is the first of two such systems impacting the region over the next few days. These two may deliver more rain than we have picked up the past two months. That’s a testament to how dry it’s been, and to how juicy these systems are.

Oh, and winter continues to show up in a big way on the models.

The heaviest rain with this first round will be over the west and central parts of the state. This action won’t reach the east until later this evening and should last into early Tuesday. Rain totals will quickly diminish across the east with some areas not picking up a half inch. Your heaviest rains come with the next system. Before then, we track the current rain maker…

High winds are a real threat for several hours this evening into he wee hours of the mornings for central and western Kentucky, especially. We can get a batch of winds exceeding 40mph to race to the northeast. A 50mph gust wouldn’t shock me and I would hope a Wind Advisory gets issued.

The rains quickly end in the east early Tuesday with a mix of sun and clouds for the rest of the day. Temps will run mild as southwesterly winds kick up ahead of the next system. Heavy rain and some thunder arrives quickly Tuesday night and carries us into Wednesday. The heaviest rains with this will be across the eastern half of Kentucky.

Between now and Wednesday night, most of the state shoulda average 1″-3″ of rain.

Much colder air filters in for the opening of December. It’s a seasonal brand of cold that can offer up a rain or snow shower by Friday as some moisture sneaks in from the northwest…

gfs-snow-2

As far as the southwestern system goes this weekend, the European Model brings the whole show out and develops one heck of a storm and moves it right across our region…

euro-2

Taken at face value, that would bring the potential for flooding rains, high winds, a big temp crash and some wraparound snows.

The GFS is back to bringing it out in a couple of waves. The first passes to our south this weekend…

gfs-5

It then brings the rest of the energy out our early next week and unleashes winter behind it…

gfs-6

It’s interesting to note, that the European Model has a similar look with the next system coming in from the west and trying to deepen at the same time…

euro-3

So, regardless of the exact evolution of the storm system this weekend, as long as that southwest energy ejects out, winter crashes in big time behind it. Giddy up!

I will have another update later today. Make it a good one and take care.

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