Monthly Archives: December 2016

Time posted: 5:51 pm

Happy New Year’s Eve

Good Saturday evening and Happy New Year’s Eve. Our last day of 2016 started out with a nice  round of sleet and snow for parts of the region. This managed to briefly cover the ground before light rain took over. VERY gusty winds continue to blow out there as we get set for a busy start to the new year.

No changes for tonight through Monday. A shower or two around into New Year’s Day with gusty winds. Thunderstorms and low 60s join the party on Monday. Yay?

The arctic front is still on pace to arrive by Wednesday with a pattern that can feature winter weather for the end of the week into the weekend.

Yesterday, the European Model had a major winter storm. The runs from early today lost that storm and only features the lead wave of arctic light snow on Thursday…

euro-2

The Euro does not crank out the second storm system because it overpowers the pattern with arctic air…

euro-3

Just like when the model showed a big storm yesterday, I’m telling you to not pay a whole lot of attention to any one run or solution. We are within the infamous 4-7 day window where the models tend to lose systems, then suddenly find them again as we inch closer.

That said, there are still several models showing a healthy winter weather hit. The Canadian shows both systems very well…

canadian

The NAVY NOGAPS (does not show precipitation type) looks a lot like yesterday’s European Model…

canadian-2

The JMA model looks similar by Friday…

jma-1

Any one of the above scenarios could play out. The pattern has been suggesting a winter weather system, but the bitter cold air is a force to be reckoned with. If it’s strong enough, it could overwhelm the pattern, giving us a lighter system.

I will update things again tonight. Happy New Year and take care.

21 Comments

Time posted: 2:50 am

A Fun Start To 2017

Good Saturday and Happy New Year! As we wrap up 2016, I want to say a big thank you for all you’ve done for me and KWC. I’ve always said you guys are the driving force behind this site, and I mean really mean that. 🙂

From a weather standpoint, the new year looks to bring it right out of the gate! I will get to all that in just a moment.

Let’s start with this final day of the year. Temperatures will range from the upper 30s to low 40s for many, with those numbers being higher in the west and south. Some light rains will be possible, and someone may see a wet flake mixing in, especially in the north.

Winds are going to be a big player today and can reach 35mph at times.

New Year’s Day will see a lot of clouds out there to go along with a shower or two. Temps will rise and keep rising all the way through Monday. That’s when low pressure works into the region from the southwest. This will bring showers and thunderstorms into the region, and I can’t rule out a strong storm… Again.

gfs

A true arctic front moves in Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with some flakes and MUCH colder air. This will be followed up by a couple of systems that can cause issues across our part of the world. The first system moving in on Thursday can produce some accumulating snow. The GFS has a high ratio light snow system…

gfs-2

The system rolling in behind that is the one to really keep a close eye on. The pattern continues to strongly suggest a southern stream storm to develop and pass to our south and east. From several days out, all the models will jump around with placement and intensity of this system. I’m not even basing my thoughts on a particular model, but only on the pattern and I’ve talked about this setup for more than a week now.

It’s still fun to watch the various models go back and forth with how to play this. The latest GFS is a big hit for the lower Ohio Valley into the Tennessee Valley…

gfs

The Canadian Model is similar…

canadian

Given the typical model biases of those two models, one could say the storm system should be stronger and slightly farther north and west.

Bitterly cold air comes in behind that system. If we put snow on the ground, look out, temps can get low, low, low.

And guess what? This is a repetitive pattern I see setting up for much of January, and can bring harsh winter weather for much of the country.

I will update things later today. Happy New Year and take care.

47 Comments

Time posted: 7:50 pm

New Year’s Eve Eve Update

Good evening, gang. Your friendly weatherude is dropping by for an update on a pattern that is locked and loaded for the start of the new year.

I have no changes on the next several days, and my thoughts on the setup for late next week haven’t changed. I’ve been trying to set you up over the past few weeks for the potential of a harsh winter pattern developing. That looks to be the case, and now the models are seeing the pattern I’ve been breaking down.

The European Model is about as harsh as you’re ever going to see from next Thursday through Saturday. It sends out one snow system on Thursday…

euro

It then follows it up with a major winter storm for Friday and Saturday…

euro-2

Taken verbatim, that would make it 3 years in a row for a biggie.

Temps behind whatever storm moves in here can tank. If we have snow on the ground, below zero we go…

euro-3

This has the making of our first THREAT of the season. It’s important to only forecast the pattern and not to bounce around from model run to model run. The pattern favors significant winter weather for our part of the world.

I will update things later tonight. Make it a great evening and take care.

15 Comments

Time posted: 12:55 pm

Quick Midday Update

Good afternoon, gang. Snow showers and flurries did their thing last night and this morning with light accumulations across central and eastern Kentucky. Some local 1″ amounts showed up right on cue in the east and southeast. Now we turn our attention toward a loaded pattern.

The weekend idea hasn’t changed at all, so there’s no reason to rehash it all.

Next week starts with 60 and thunderstorms on Monday, but may end with our first threat level system of the season.

Arctic air spills in here on Wednesday and sets the stage for an active southern storm track. It’s all about reading the pattern and not reacting to each model run showing a different solution with this system. Last night’s GFS kept this system to our south, the new run does not…

gfs

The Canadian also has a nice winter hit…

canadian

The individual members from the GFS Ensembles continue to indicate the winter weather potential across the Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic states…

gfs-snow

Bitterly cold temps come in behind whatever winter system that shows up on Thursday and Friday…

canadian-2

If we can put snow and ice on the ground later next week, temps can go below zero.

I will have another update later this evening. Enjoy the day and take care.

32 Comments

Time posted: 3:10 am

A Loaded Pattern Takes Shape

Good Friday, folks. We are rolling our way into the New Year’s Weekend with snow showers and flurries flying across the region. As this moves away, another system moves in with a mix of some rain and snow as we shut the door on 2016. It’s the start of 2017 that keeps looking more and more interesting.

Today’s snow showers and flurries can put down some light accumulations this morning. With temps below freezing, some slick spots may even develop on roads.

The system moving in here for New Year’s Eve keeps looking like a light mix of rain and some snow…

nam

Another system moves through here on Monday with gusty winds and the chance for some thunderstorms.

From there, we watch an arctic front sweeping in here by Wednesday. That should produce a band of light snow and flurries behind it, but the real story tries to come right after that.

The setup continues to see major blocking going up over the top of a DEEP trough going coast to coast across the country…

euroThat setup will feature an active southern storm track that can bring some significant winter weather to parts of the Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley  and Mid-Atlantic states. Placement of the axis of winter weather will be different on each model and each model run.

It’s interesting to look at the 21 members of the GFS Ensembles to see how they all have this setup, but differ on placement…

gfs-snow

Several of those members have that winter weather axis setting up deep into the south. Where will it ultimately set up? That remains to be seen, but the setup has a good look to it.

This is also a coast to coast very, very cold pattern taking shape…

euro-2

I will have updates on all this coming later today. Enjoy your Friday and take care.

21 Comments