Daily Archives: December 1, 2016

Time posted: 7:23 pm

Thursday Evening Thoughts

Good Thursday evening, my fellow weather weenies. December is off to a seasonally chilly start, but the pattern is about to take on a pretty wintry look across the country. I have this update loaded with maps, so let’s get after it. 🙂

The late weekend system continues to look on the light side, with some rain and snow possible late Saturday night into early Sunday…

nam

The next system rolling in here Monday and Tuesday is likely to bring another round of heavy rain. A general 1″-2″ will be possible. The GFS is forecasting totals to be a littler higher…

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This sudden change to a very wet pattern is the buffer between the dry and warm setup of the past several months, and the big change to winter coming next week.

That change happens as an arctic front works across the state Wednesday into early Thursday…

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That should be complete with a MAJOR drop in temperatures, gusty winds and some, at least, snow showers and squalls behind the front. Temperatures behind this front will stay in the low and middle 20s for highs with lows dropping into the low teens. Wind chill numbers in the single digits, anyone? 🙂

Just look at the definition of the arctic air mass behind this front…

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That’s a lot of cold air that will then continue to hang tough across much of the country into next weekend. This should happen as a southern stream system rides eastward underneath. You can see that showing up at the end of the European Model…

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The GFS also has that potential snow maker…

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The same GFS run then shows another arctic plunge a few days later, as a big storm develops…

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Of course, I’m not showing these maps for anything other than illustrating how the pattern is taking a big turn to winter.

Some of those extreme December analog years continue to show up, and that should be an attention getter.

Have a great evening and take care.

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Time posted: 2:00 am

It’s Cold and Getting Colder

Good Thursday, everyone. As hard as it is to believe, the month of December has arrived. It’s the start of meteorological winter and the overall pattern is certainly looking the part. Our seasonal brand of cold we have out there the next few days, threatens to grow much colder next week as arctic air shows up.

Let’s break down the short term outlook before we get too far ahead of ourselves. Highs today and Friday will generally range from 40-45 with lows dropping into the upper 20s to around 30. Areas of clouds will float by our sky and could drop a sprinkle or a flake into the east and northeast.

The southwestern energy we’ve been talking about for more than a week, looks to come out in a couple of pieces. The first arrives Saturday night into Sunday with the potential for a light mix of rain and snow. The NAM by Sunday morning…

nam

The GFS continues to show the leading edge of the precipitation starting as a mix. Here’s a snapshot of where it thinks that mix can occur…

gfs-rain

Highs on Sunday will struggle to get out of the upper 30s in the central and east.

The next part of that southwestern system looks to be much bigger than the first and can bring a lot of rain back in here by late Monday into Tuesday…

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Check out the rainfall totals on the GFS…

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Talk about making up for lost time… that’s a lot of rain falling after the big rains of the past few days. I’m not just talking about Kentucky… Look at those totals in the south. This is one heck of a turnaround, and should show you just how different this current pattern is than the one of the past year.

After that system, all eyes turn to a big arctic shot diving into the plains states. This will roll our way by Wednesday or Thursday, and the GFS is showing this well…

gfs-6

Here’s the European Model with an even colder look…

euro

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We may see a 40 degree temperature drop from one side of that front to the other… In just a few hours! That also has the look of a big wind maker to go along with an increasing threat for, at least, some snow. Highs may stay in the low and middle 20s for a few days behind that front.

Check out the conveyor belt of arctic cold extending from Alaska into our part of the world deeper into December…

gfs-gif

I will update things later today. Make it a good one and take care.

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