Daily Archives: December 2, 2016

Time posted: 7:28 pm

Friday Evening Fastcast

Good evening, folks. The first weekend of December is off and running and we have a very active pattern continuing to take shape. This setup will also lead to several winter weather chances as arctic air shows up next week.

The late weekend system rolls in here with some light rain that may have a few snowflakes mixed in early in the day. The GFS is still seeing the potential…

gfs-snow

Sunday just looks like a rather ugly and chilly weather day.

The next system is much bigger and brings heavy rain back in here late Monday into Tuesday…

gfs

That could lead to another 1″+ of rain across much of the state.

Arctic air is on the move behind this system, with the traditional timing and evolvement issues showing up with the models. The GFS is too fast and progressive, as always, with that system.

The European Model continues to indicate a wave of low pressure developing along the boundary…

euro

That wave will likely show up stronger on the models in coming days and could deliver a stripe of snow across the region. Behind that, snow showers and flurries will likely fly around through Friday. Highs in the low and mid 20s will be a good bet, but wind chills will make it feel much, much colder.

Overnight low will drop into the low and middle teens, but the Canadian goes even lower…

canadian

The pattern from there can throw some additional winter weather makers our way. The morning run of the GFS went a little crazy…

gfs-2

gfs-3

Enjoy your evening and take care.

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Time posted: 2:05 am

Winter Ready To Show Up

Good Friday, folks. The past few Decembers have been pretty wimpy in terms of cold weather and snows across the country. That does not appear to be the case this winter as Old Man Winter continues to throw out some healthy signals.

I’ve been harping on the change to wet weather being a big indicator of the overall different setup we are seeing across the country. Think of it as the buffer between the warm and dry stuff of the past several months, and the abrupt change to winter in the week ahead.

It’s a busy pattern, so let’s break it all down.

A weak system rolls our way Saturday night into Sunday, and will bring a period of light rain with it. There’s a chance for some wet flakes to mix in at times early on Sunday. The GFS still sees the best chance in the north and east…

gfs

The next system rolling in late Monday and Tuesday will likely have gusty winds and some heavy rains with it. The GFS isn’t as wet as earlier runs, but still shows some 1″+ totals…

gfs-rain-2

That’s another healthy drink of water for the region and into the deep south, and we will take it!

Once that passes, we focus on a true arctic cold front working in here late Wednesday and early Thursday. This front will have a dramatic drop in temperatures and will likely produce, at least, some snow. The whole snow thing could range from general snow showers and flurries to a swath of accumulating snows if we can get a wave of low pressure along the boundary.

The GFS shows something close to that…

gfs-6

The European Model is just a little slower with the arrival of the front, but is closer to developing a bigger system along the front…

euro

Regardless of timing and model solution… That’s some significant cold air blowing in here. Temps drop some 30-40 degrees in a few hours behind this front with highs in the 20s for Thursday and Friday, and maybe Saturday. Lows can drop into the low teens with an outside shot at some single digits if we can get any snow on the ground.

Wind chill temps can drop way down there…

gfs-temps

As mentioned in earlier posts, something is going to try to work under this cold dome by next weekend. The GFS shows a system wrapping up into a big storm…

gfs

Given the amount of cold air and blocking, I doubt that type of a scenario. We may see more of an east to west system working across the Tennessee Valley. The European Model shows something like that…

euro-2

The model trend of the early cold weather season is for the end result to be right between what the GFS and European models have been forecasting. Food for thought.

I will update things later today, so check back.

Have a great Friday and take care.

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