Daily Archives: December 3, 2016

Time posted: 3:04 pm

Saturday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, everyone. This update is coming early because I’m heading out to the Fayette Mall to ring the bell for the Salvation Army. Also, my Cats just laid an egg on national TV… at home, so my mood is rather suspect at the moment.

Let’s get straight into it…

Nothing has changed with the system coming late tonight and Sunday. Nothing has changed with the heavy rain maker Monday night and Tuesday.

Nothing has changed with my thoughts on the arctic front arriving Wednesday night. We have to watch for a weak wave of low pressure developing along this boundary. The Canadian shows this…

canadian

So does the European Model…

euro

That would mean a band of light snow behind the front with snow showers and some flurries behind it into later Thursday and Friday. This is some VERY cold air coming into the region. 850mb temps as low as -22c…

canadian-3

Highs in the low and mid 20s with lows deep into the teens. Wind chills make it feel much, much colder.

The stage is then set for another system to work in from the west and into the Tennessee Valley by next weekend. That is usually a good snow track for our region. Here’s the Canadian…

canadian-4

The European Model is similar, but with a bigger storm…

euro-2

Taken verbatim, both of the above models put down heavy snow across the entire state. Again, that’s a week away so take any one solution with a grain of salt. That said, the signal is strong with this one.

Have a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 1:55 am

Tracking A Big Change To Winter

Good Saturday, folks. If you’re a fan of winter weather leading up to Christmas, you have to love the pattern taking shape across the country. It’s one loaded with very cold blast, and the potential for several snow systems to threaten out region.

Let’s start with the weekend weather and roll forward.

Clouds are doing the rolling out there today, ahead of a storm system arriving late tonight and Sunday. This system will bring a chilly rain in here, with the potential for some snowflakes mixing in early on Sunday. Overall, Sunday looks like a dreary day.

The follow up system to this one will be much bigger and bring heavy rain back to the bluegrass state. This arrives late Monday and lasts into Tuesday…

gfs-4

That can bring another 1″+ rainfall to parts of the state. Winds will also be gusty as that low works across the area.

Once this storm goes through, here comes the arctic front! This looks to arrive later Wednesday or early Thursday with high winds, a band of snow and a MAJOR temperature crash…

gfs

We are still going to have to see if an arctic wave develops along that boundary. If it does, it would certainly enhance the chances for accumulating snows. The European Model continues to be more robust with that scenario…

euro

With such cold air and a strong northwesterly flow, you’ve got to like the chances for snow showers and flurries all the way through Friday night.

Highs for Thursday and Friday should be in the low and mid 20s with gusty winds making it feel much colder. The new European Model suggests some areas have a hard time getting out of the upper teens on Friday…

euro-2

Low temps will drop into the 10-15 degree range with single digit wind chills very possible. Ouch!

The GFS has had some amazing looking runs over the past few days. The overnight run shows the waves of very cold, arctic air diving into the region over the next few weeks. Check this out…

gfs

Each cold shot as a potential winter weather maker with it. Here’s the first one showing up next weekend. The European is impressed with this…

euro-3

The GFS is also seeing it…

gfs-2

You can see the next one already coming into California. That rolls eastward a few days later…

gfs-3

And this run of the GFS shows a carbon copy of a system a few days after that…

gfs-4

Now, that’s just one run of the GFS over the next few weeks. You know how this works, it’s fun to look at, but don’t get married to any kind of specifics. It just illustrates the potential of a pretty good winter pattern setting up across the country.

The individual GFS Ensembles members also have a healthy winter look…

gfs-snow

I will update things later today. Make it a good one and take care.

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