Daily Archives: December 4, 2016

Time posted: 7:52 pm

Sunday Evening Update

Good evening, gang. It’s a cold and dreary Sunday across the bluegrass state, but it’s all eyes on a busy week ahead. I wanted to stop by for a very quick update on how things stand going into the week ahead.

Another big rain maker is on the way late Monday into Tuesday. This will likely dump 1″ or more of rain across many areas. The Hi Res NAM is targeting the central and east with the highest totals, and has a few spots approaching 2″ in the south…

nam

That’s just awesome to see and will continue the trend of putting to bed a short term fall drought across our region.

After that, here comes the arctic front. The models continue to be split on a wave developing along the boundary. The pattern certainly favors a weak system, and the European continues to show that…

euro

If that wave is real, a band of light snow would be noted behind the front across our region. That would likely happen Wednesday night into early Thursday.

A strong northwesterly flow of arctic air will then settle in here, likely bringing some snow showers and flurries through Friday…

euro-2

That’s some real deal cold air and gusty winds. The model output numbers are already cold, and in situations like this, they grow colder the closer you get. Highs in the 20s with lows deep into the teens will be noted. Wind chill numbers will be even colder.

We are in the 4-7 day window of where models start to flip and flop on a potential system next weekend. This seems to be a definitive trend in all models, then they suddenly find the original solution within 4 days or so. I still maintain next weekend system is likely to not be a big storm that amplifies across our region. The pattern favors a system rolling due east with some winter weather along it.

Once that swings through, western Canada has the next arctic blast lined up ready to dive southeast. Here’s the European at day 10…

euro-3

For fun, the GFS temperatures once that blast arrives a day or so later…

gfs-temps

That’s a very cold look and one supported by the analog years and the Ensembles. Speaking of the Ensembles, here’s a look at the next two weeks worth of snow from the 21 members that make up the GFS Ensembles…

gfs-snow

While you can’t get true specifics from that, you can certainly see how all of them are forecasting a lot of winter weather across the Ohio Valley, with several showing snow into the deep south.

So much for this being a “quick” update… I just can’t help myself. 🙂

I’ll see you back here later tonight for another update. Enjoy the rest of the weekend and take care.

8 Comments

Time posted: 2:07 am

Arctic Changes In The Week Ahead

Good Sunday, folks. Some areas can get in on a flake or two early today, but the real winter weather arrives in the coming week. This pattern is locked and loaded with another big rain event that leads us into Arctic air and some snow chances.

As always, we start with the weather out there today…

A weak system is bringing some light rain that can mix with a few snowflakes from time to time. Today is just a damp, cold and dreary day across the Commonwealth. Temps range from the upper 30s and low 40s to the mid 40s west and south.

Another soaker of a system will move in here late Monday and Tuesday. This can drop another one inch or more across much of the state. Here’s the NAM…

nam

Notice how it’s not just Kentucky getting in on the rainy action. The Tennessee Valley into the deep south continues to hit the rain jackpot after months and months of drought. Bring it!

This is the time of year just about everyone wants to see cold and snow. It’s December and Christmas is 3 weeks away, so even many snow haters like to see some action for the holidays. Well… Old Man Winter is trying to deliver the goods.

An arctic front moves in here by Wednesday night and will unleash some very cold air for the second half of the week. This front will try to spawn a weak wave of low pressure along it, which could enhance a little band of light snow. The European continues to show this wave…

euro

The GFS is much faster with the arctic front and only has a few snow showers and flurries…

gfs

The truth is likely between the two, as always. Regardless, that’s a very cold shot of air on the way for the second half of the week.

That will last into next weekend, and that’s when we focus on another system working into the region…

gfs-2

That’s likely to travel across the Tennessee Valley instead of amplifying into a monster storm. Of course, that’s still several days out and we will see many model variations on strength and track in the coming days.

I will have another update later today. Enjoy your Sunday and take care.

15 Comments