Daily Archives: December 5, 2016

Time posted: 7:47 pm

Monday Evening Update

Good evening, friends. Just dropping by to tell you I have nothing more to add from my earlier updates. Heavy rain is on the move and arrives later tonight, then we start to focus on an arctic front sweeping in here late Wednesday.

Tonight’s rain really kicks into high gear after midnight and continues into Tuesday. Amounts of 1″+ are possible across a good chunk of the region…

The arctic front moves in Wednesday night with crashing temps and a few flakes right behind the front. From there, a cold northwesterly flow will try to throw a snow shower or flurry our way Thursday into Friday…

nam

The next system to impact the region comes late this weekend, and the operational models continue to try to figure that mess out. I still maintain this is a west to east mover. As always, we shall see.

This is a great pattern to focus more on the Ensembles than the operational models. The Ensembles had this weeks cold well before the operational models picked up on it. The ensembles do show rounds of big cold coming through over the next few weeks.

They also show snow chances. Here are the individual members from the GFS Ensembles for the next two weeks…

gfs

I will have a full update late tonight. Enjoy your evening and take care.

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Time posted: 12:20 pm

Some Quick Midday Thoughts

Good afternoon, folks. With such an active pattern taking shape, I wanted to drop by for a bonus update as we kick off the afternoon.

The rain moving in tonight and Tuesday continues to look on the heavy side. The closer we get, I’m wondering if we can get some small stream issues to arise at some point. The NAM and Hi Res NAM show some lofty totals, but differ slightly on placement. Here are the totals from Pivotal Weather…

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nam-4

Considering much of that may fall in a 6-12 hour period, we will be on guard for some small stream flooding.

No changes with the arctic front arriving Wednesday night and early Thursday. Some snow showers and flurries look to be possible through Friday with the very cold air we’ve been highlighting for a loooong time now.

As expected, the models are slowly trying to trend back toward a flatter solution with the weekend system. Instead of cutting a storm into the Lakes, the GFS keeps going weaker and farther south…

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Here’s the snow map from that particular run…

gfs-snow-2

Again, watch for this to trend weaker and farther south in time.

Another arctic blast is slated to take over the country as we roll into next week. The new numbers from the GFS by the middle of the week…

gfs-temps-3

The arctic shots are locked and loaded and will continue to dive into the region through Christmas. It’s hard for this kind of pattern not to produce snows across our part of the world. Timing is always the tricky part.

See you for the evening update. Enjoy the day and take care.

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Time posted: 2:09 am

From Heavy Rain To Arctic Cold

Good Monday, everyone. It’s the first full week of December and things continue to look on the busy side. We have another big rain maker ready to roll in from the southwest. From there, arctic air surges in for the second half of the week. This continues to look like a pattern loaded with very cold shots, with shots at snow thrown in for good measure. 🙂

Let’s begin with the heavy rain maker ready to move in. Clouds and seasonally chilly temps in the 40s will be noted out there today. The rain arrives from southwest to northeast this evening and carries us through Tuesday. Heavy rain amounts of greater than 1″ will be possible.

Several of the models are now back to showing some 2″ rains across the southeast…

gfs-rain

Wednesday turns colder as the day wears on with the actual arctic front arriving Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The amount of precipitation along and behind this front remains a question mark, with most of the modelling leaving off the wave of low pressure.

Still, the has a band of light snow behind the front…

nam-2

That may be just a little overzealous, but has a shot of happening.

With such cold air surging in from the northwest, we have to look at the amount of moisture showing up in the lowest levels of the atmosphere. The NAM shows a lot of low level juice moving in from the northwest on Thursday…

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The Canadian Model looks like a scaled down version of the NAM, with a VERY weak wave of low pressure bringing some light snow and flurries behind the front…

canadian

The northwesterly flow then kicks in and tries to aim some lake enhanced snows our way late Thursday into Friday…

canadian-4

That’s a cold look for the end of the week with a couple days in the 20s for highs with lows deep into the teens. Wind chills will be even colder.

The weekend system continues to look different with each and every model run. I don’t like any run that blows that system up into a big storm. At the moment, I don’t see that to be the case.

Instead, we could look at competing weaker systems rolling through the region with light precipitation…

canadian-3

Once that zips through here, another big arctic shot is likely to dip into the country early next week. This one should be colder than the one coming later this week. Several recent runs of the Ensembles and operational models have offered up some super cold stuff. The latest GFS being among them…

gfs-2

gfs-temps-2

How will all this play out with snow chances between now and Christmas? That remains to be seen, but you can’t have snow without the cold shots. 😉

I will see you later today for another update. Make it a great Monday and take care.

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