Daily Archives: December 6, 2016

Time posted: 7:03 pm

Thoughts On The Pattern

Good evening, folks. Drizzle and showers and finally pushing out of the region and now it’s time to focus on a pattern loaded with arctic cold shots in the coming weeks. Snow chances will likely show up, potentially sooner rather than later.

We know all about the arctic front moving in here tomorrow night and early Thursday. My thoughts have not changed at all.

The late weekend system continues to trend colder as we get closer. The GFS is now giving us a decent shot of wintry weather…

gfs

Notice how the GFS snowfall forecast has shifted farther south with this…

gfs-snow

The European Model is also trending less amplified with this system…

euro

Speaking of the European Model, it’s backing up the GFS and all the Ensembles with the arctic air for next week. It brings a couple waves of snow to the region…

euro-2

euro-3

The surface temperature anomalies for the middle and end of next week are insane…

euro-4

Enjoy your evening and take care.

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Time posted: 12:35 pm

Early Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, gang. We have a very ugly day in progress across the Commonwealth of Kentucky.  Many areas will end the day with better than an inch of water since last night. Not too shabby! Now comes the arctic cold fronts that take center stage over the next few weeks.

The first arctic front moves in Wednesday night with the potential for a shower ahead of it and a band of flakes right behind it. As winds become northwesterly Thursday into Friday, watch for some flurries or a light snow shower. The cold temps sink in through the day Thursday.

What do we do with the weekend system? Outside of the European (which isn’t exactly acting like the European anymore), most models are trending flatter with the weekend system.

The Canadian brings a light mix…

canadian

The GFS is a bit stronger with a mix to rain to light snow setup…

gfs

That’s likely overplaying the northern low, so let’s see if that trends weaker and colder in the coming days.

You will notice the cold surging in behind that, and that’s leading the charge for a stronger arctic plunge into the country…

gfs-2

That’s the operational GFS which now matches the Ensembles. Again… the Ensembles are kicking the snot out of the operational models.

Here are the temps on that run…

gfs-temps-2

The same model run loads up another arctic front a few days later…

gfs-temps-3

I’m not saying the numbers play out exactly as shown, but it’s good to see the operational models matching what the Ensembles have been showing for a while now. Go back and look at the post from a few days ago with me showing how the Ensembles had Alaska and western Canada sending shots of cold deep into the country. You will find the above maps similar to that.

I will hook you up with another post this evening. Until then, track some rain…

Take care.

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Time posted: 2:06 am

Heavy Rain Before The Arctic Front

Good Tuesday, everyone. We have heavy rain moving across the region today and this kicks off a very active weather period across our region. The heavy rainfall will be followed by an arctic cold front due in town by Wednesday night and early Thursday.

Today’s rain is heaviest across the central and east with amounts of 1″ or more possible. Some local 2″ amounts will be possible. Track away…

The arctic front moving in Wednesday night continues to throw a head fake or two at the models. The NAM is back showing a weak wave of low pressure, with a band of light snow…

nam

Other models don’t have such a robust band of light snow, but do bring some flurries into town.

Speaking of flurries, the northwesterly wind flow can kick off some flurries or light snow showers later Thursday into Friday…

nam

The weekend system is still on track to bring a wintry mix of precipitation from Saturday night into Sunday…

canadian

I will shoot you an update or two later today. Make it a good one and take care.

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