Daily Archives: December 8, 2016

Time posted: 7:42 pm

Thursday Evening Update

Good evening, gang. We are dealing with very cold air blowing into the region tonight into Friday. This will knock wind chills down into the single digits at times late tonight for some areas. This will also funnel in some more clouds and a few snow flurries.

From there, it’s all eyes on the late weekend system impacting the weather for a lot of folks. This system continues to show the potential for some front end wintry weather across parts of our region. The new NAM only goes through the wee hours of Monday morning, but shows the prospects for some wintry weather across the northern half of the state…

nam

Now, don’t look at that and think snowfall, think of it as showing where the potential for winter weather is across Kentucky.

The same with the European…

euro-snow

You can clearly see the heaviest snow to the north of the Ohio River on both of those models.

Taken verbatim, those models show some front end wintry mix changing to rain and carrying us into Monday.

The GFS had a late day run that focused this action a lot farther north…

gfs-snow

The next item up for bids is an arctic front slated to arrive by the middle of next week…

gfs-2

That will likely have a system along it that can bring winter weather to our part of the world. Behind it…. B to the RR. 🙂

I will see you guys back here later tonight. Enjoy the evening and take care.

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Time posted: 12:51 pm

Quick Midday Update

Good afternoon, gang. My time is short, so this will have to be a very quick update to hit the potential high points or the pattern over the next few weeks.

Our late weekend system continues to be a west-east mover that can have a winter weather impact to the northern half of the state. One weak system shears through on Sunday with a little bigger system Sunday night into Monday.

The NAM only goes out through early Sunday evening, but it has some frozen precipitation showing up across the northern half of the state…

nam

If we expand that out through Monday night on the Canadian model, you can see how some BIG snows should be just to our north…

canadian

The GFS is similar with the whole thought process…

gfs-snow

Following that system up will be an arctic front arriving late Tuesday or Wednesday. The GFS is picking up on snow with that system. You can see that added to the above totals as we expand the time period…

gfs-snow-2

The GFS continues to forecast single digits behind that arctic surge for the middle of next week.

With additional surges of arctic air moving into the country over the next 2 weeks, the GFS keeps developing systems along the leading edge of these.

For fun, let’s look at the GFS snow map for every flake that falls through the next 16 days…

gfs-snow-3

We obviously take any snowfall map with a truckload of salt, but one can see where the models think will have the best chance of seeing accumulating snows in the coming weeks. If you’re trying to get more specific than that, don’t blame me. 😉

I will give you another update this evening. Take care.

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Time posted: 2:16 am

A Heck Of A Pattern Taking Shape

Good Thursday, everyone. Arctic air continues to press into the bluegrass state from the northwest. This will knock our temps way down, but may just be a small preview of what’s to come. This pattern setting up across the country has a little “Wow” factor to it.

The artic air pours in from the northwest today and carries us into the start of the weekend. A few snow flurries will be possible tonight into Friday as the northwesterly flow kicks in.

From there, we are seeing more than the normal amount of model variance in regards to the late weekend system. To be honest, this has been the case for the past week, and looks to be the case for next week. Why is this happening? It’s likely because of the extreme cold air that’s engulfing North America. Models don’t handle extremes very well and can give us some pretty substantial swings from run to run.

The changes for the Sunday-Monday system include a much weaker Sunday system and a stronger system arriving Sunday night into Monday. Under that scenario, the best chance for snow and winter weather is across the northern parts of the state.

Here’s a snapshot of where the GFS thinks the snow falls Sunday into Monday…

gfs-snow

The Canadian Model is singing a similar song, but is all strung out on steroids with the totals to our north…

canadian

You can clearly see a west to east moving system instead of one cutting into the Great Lakes. How far south that can come is the question and one the models won’t fully figure out for another day or so.

If we take the above model runs at their word… the heaviest snows stay just to our north with some snow across northern Kentucky, with a mix to rain in the south.

We are also seeing some changes with how the models handle the arctic outbreaks moving into the country next week.

The GFS went from a weak system introducing the arctic air, to something much stronger…

gfs

That model run sets off one angry temperature drop from Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. The numbers below are over a 12 hour period…

gfs-temps

That’s impressive to say the least.

The same run of the GFS then did this a few days later…

gfs-2

The temps behind that were even colder…

gfs-temps-2

The exact evolution of all this remains to be seen, but there is no denying the potential for much of the country to be in the deep freeze as we go through the rest of December.

Snow threats should be there during this time, but again, specifics will be worked out as we roll ahead.

Speaking of snow threats… the GFS Ensembles continue to do their thing over the next 2 weeks…

gfs-snow-3

For fun, the overnight operational run of the GFS decided it wanted in on the Ensembles fun…

gfs-snow-2

And for the record… none of the above maps should be taken as anything other than what they are meant to be used for… Guidance. They are snapshots in time of what particular computers think will happen. The specifics of each model run change, and can change drastically with each update.

That said, the trend on the “guidance” is now matching what the analog years have been suggesting across the country for December.

I will hook you up with updates later today. Make it a good one and take care.

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