Daily Archives: December 10, 2016

Time posted: 7:52 pm

Saturday Evening Post

Good evening, folks. It’s been a busy day for your friendly weatherdude, so you only get the one extra update. 🙂 We are coming off a nice blast of arctic air that sent a few locations into the high single digits this morning. As it stands, none of the model forecasts were cold enough, and that goes from a week ago to yesterday.

That cold hangs on across the region tonight as some snow just misses us to the north. This can still drop some flurries or sleet across the north and northeast…

Temperatures on Sunday will slowly rise from south to north as a weak system moves in. Rain will develop later in the day, and with dry air in place, could begin as some sleet in the north.

Chilly rains then carry us into Monday before some of that tries to end as a flake Monday night and Tuesday morning.

Arctic air then seeps in here from the north late Tuesday into Wednesday. This should be accompanied by a streak of fast moving light snow heading from west to east…

euro

That will be falling into arctic air, so we will have to watch for a nice little fluff factor. With very little moisture needed, these systems can sometimes overachieve. Just look back to the snows we had Friday. Zero models showed flakes because they missed the arctic/dry nature of the snow.

That arctic air then settles in for the rest of the week as it spreads out in a west to east fashion. That type of a setup can sometimes lead to trouble when the next system moves in, and that appears to be the case by the end of the week.

Shallow arctic air in place with overrunning moisture can lead to a wintry mess or ice. Here’s the Canadian…

canadian-2

That shows has an ugly look and is backed up by the European Model. Notice how cold the surface temps are compared to the thickness values on the left…

euro-2

Warmer air aloft, cold air at the surface as precipitation moves in. That can spell some nasty stuff, and certainly bears watching.

This was really the only red flag about the winter that I threw up in the winter forecast this year. I didn’t go crazy with snow totals or bitter cold, but tried to draw attention to the ice potential likely to show up at times this winter. Here’s hoping that is not the case!!

The European then switches things to rain for a time, but crashes the undercutting cold back in here hours later…

euro-4

The model then shows the arctic air winning the battle…

euro-3

The Canadian at the same times is even colder, and likely too cold…

canadian

Did I just have the audacity to show computer models to the general public? The horror of such a thing! 😉

So the Canadian and European Models are pretty much marching to the beat of the same drum. The GFS had been consistently showing similar outcomes, but I really don’t know what the heck it’s doing right now with that model at the moment. It’s different from run to run.

I will see you guys for another update later tonight.

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Time posted: 2:19 am

Watching A Busy Winter Pattern

Good Saturday, everyone. Winter weather has been with much of the region over the past couple of days and this is the beginning of a winter pattern settling in. We are looking toward next week and the potential for additional arctic shots and potential snow threats.

Before we get to that, we will be on guard for a weak system ready to impact our region Sunday into Monday.

We have cold air in place across the state today, but slightly milder air is going to push in over the next few days. As this pushes in, the northern half of the state could see a few snowflakes or some sleet tonight into Sunday morning. The Hi Res NAM…

nam

Much of that will be drying up before it reaches the ground, but it’s something to keep an eye on.

As temps climb on Sunday, showers take over from west to east and will carry us into the first part of Monday. This could deliver another decent rainfall…

nam

Much colder air then filters in here Monday night into Tuesday. Low level moisture looks to linger and should be in the form of a few snowflakes during that time.

This is when we focus on an arctic front charging in from the northwest. This boundary will drop in as the arctic air spreads out from west to east. This sets up a gradient with waves of low pressure attempting to develop. Expecting models to perfectly handle this kind of cold and ensuing systems is pretty silly. I’ve talked about this for days and days now, and we have been seeing extreme runs of all the models.

The European Model shows one of those waves by late Tuesday and Wednesday…

euro

Here’s the snapshot of the bitterly cold air coming into the country behind that…

gfs-temps

That same run then sets up a wild looking storm system by next weekend and has another arctic blast moving into the country from the northwest…

gfs-temps-3

There is so much extreme cold across North America that the models cannot handle it properly. In turn, that messes up how they handle each system that goes along with the cold.

This continues to be a heck of a winter pattern taking shape across the country. We will continue to fine tune the direct impacts on our weather as we get closer to each system and arctic blast.

I will have additional updates later today. Make it a great day and take care.

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