Daily Archives: December 11, 2016

Time posted: 4:01 pm

Sunday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, folks. I promised to take a break from a busy day and chime in with another update. So, here’s your late afternoon update. 🙂

A touch of sleet has been reported in northern Kentucky, but the milder air continues to take care of that. Rain will increase across the entire region this evening and carry us into early Monday…

Temps behind that will chill down quickly on Monday with the potential for a few snowflakes dancing about the sky from late in the day into Monday night.

From there, it’s all about the arctic front charging in here on Wednesday. This can produce a quick hitting band of light snow and flurries. You can see that zipping through here…

canadian

The air behind that is frigid. Check out the forecast lows for Thursday and Friday…

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Highs on Thursday may not get out of the upper teens across the northern half of the state. Gusty winds during this time will make it feel much, much colder.

The late week/weekend system continues to show up a little differently as we inch closer. The models are now showing two separate systems impacting the region. one with a mix to rain initially, then another developing along the arctic front moving back in. That one has much more winter with it.

Here’s the GFS Parallel…

gfs

The Canadian Model is now similar…

canadian

The European Model is also seeing that second, slow-moving system…

euro-2

As you can see, that’s another big blast of arctic air following up that system.

That air mass lifts out a few days later, but leaves behind a lot of low level cold air as another system shows up on the European Model…

euro-3

This is a pattern where the upper levels don’t tell the full temperature story. The low levels are just so darn cold because of all the arctic air.

I’ll see you guys later tonight. Enjoy the evening and take care.

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Time posted: 2:37 am

Things Continue To Look Very Busy

Good Sunday, friends and neighbors. We have a quick hitting system rolling into the region later today into Monday. This begins what looks to be another fun filled week of weather, complete with arctic and a messy winter system by the end of the week.

Let’s roll up our sleeves and get after it.

The day starts cold with some flakes flying in the north.

Later today, precipitation increases from west to east and really kicks in this evening into tonight. The low levels are very dry so, even with temps going well above freezing, the initial surge of precipitation can be in the form of sleet. That would quickly change to rain as the temperature and dewpoint meet in the middle.

Rainy weather will be with us into Monday with chilly temps dropping as the day wears on.

This is when we await the arrival of another big arctic front. We have had this one on the blog for a long, long time now. A fast moving band of light snow may introduce this arctic air at some point late Tuesday or Wednesday.

The air behind this is icebox stuff for much of the country. The Canadian model lows…

canadian-2

Look who is back to showing this arctic outbreak, our old friend the GFS…

gfs-temps

Check out the forecast highs for Thursday…

gfs-temps-2

And now you see why I didn’t post the warmer runs of the GFS from the past few days… they didn’t match the pattern or the other models.

This brings us to the late week potential winter weather system. This is going to be one interesting system. We will have arctic air in place with a deep and expansive snowpack just to our north. It is my experience that the models don’t see that very well until a few days out. Would that be enough to force a colder and father south solution of such a system.

The overnight European Model didn’t think so…

euro-5

Taken verbatim, the European Model shows snow and ice to start, then a change to rain and then back to some snow and ice as another arctic air mass pushes in.

The Canadian Model appears to be sensing the Arctic cold and snowpack because it went a little south and colder…

canadian

The Canadian also has another arctic blast following that system. Check out the cool animation of the cold temperature anomalies over a long period ahead of us…

canadian-2

I will have another update or two later today. Things are busy, but I always drop by for at least one more update. 🙂

Have a great Sunday and take care.

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