Daily Archives: December 14, 2016

Time posted: 7:24 pm

Here Comes The Arctic Air

Good evening, folks. The arctic air is diving into the region from the northwest and will take control of our pattern over the next few days.

The short term models are coming in brutally cold for the Ohio Valley tonight. They seem to be picking up on the snowpack and how that influences the temps downstream. The RAP shows a lot of single digits across the northern half of the state…

rap

The HRRR is equally as cold…

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And those wind chills…

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Wow! Here’s hoping that’s an extreme solution, but these models have the highest resolution of the bunch.

The weekend system throws moisture our way late Friday and that could be in the form of a wintry mix…

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One thing to watch for is a frozen ground. Even if temps are a little above freezing, I’ve seen similar situations result in some icy roads.

The temps rise all night Friday into Saturday and should hit the low 60s. Thunder and lightning will be possible before the arctic air moves back in. The end result is a rapid switch to sleet, freezing rain and some snow into early Sunday…

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I leave you with the regional radar to track some snowflakes ahead of the arctic front…

Enjoy the evening and take care.

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Time posted: 12:22 pm

Middle Of The Week Midday Update

Good afternoon, folks. Arctic air is poised to blast into the bluegrass state tonight, bringing the coldest air of the season to date. From there, the forecast for the weekend continues to get a little wild with temperatures and precipitation types for everyone.

The arctic cold arrives tonight and the short range, higher resolution models are coming in colder than the typical models we look at. The RAP temperature forecast for Thursday morning…

rap

Man, that’s some cold stuff. This front may have some flakes along it this evening…

That cold remains into Friday as we await the arrive of the next system. Overrunning moisture returns by Friday evening and could be in the form of a mix. The NAM continues to see this…

nam

That pushes to the north as warmer air surges in for Saturday. Temps can make a run at 60 for many areas on a gusty southwesterly wind. Showers and some thunderstorms will be possible as an arctic front moves in here. That front arrives Saturday night with a switch to a wintry mix of sleet, freezing rain and snow behind it…

canadian

Does that only last for an hour or two, or a little longer? Obviously the longer it goes, the more problems we would see. Temps drop through the 20s during the day with some teens in the north and west.

Temperatures by Monday morning will be frigid…

canadian

Geez, I wonder where the snowpack is? 😉

I will shoot you another update later today. Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 2:01 am

Tracking An Arctic Blast Before A Wild Weekend

Good Wednesday, everyone. We have a big arctic front ready to slam into the region later today. This will introduce the coldest air of the season to our part of the world. It will also carry us into the start of a wicked wild weather weekend that may feature everything from thunderstorms to snow and ice.

Winds will be very gusty as the arctic front moves in here this evening. Those gusty winds will carry us into Thursday as temps absolutely tank. Readings by Thursday morning drop into the high single digits in the north, to 10-15 for the rest of the area. Highs only recover into the upper teens to low 20s.

Wind chills on Thursday are ugly…

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That’s some wicked cold stuff considering we don’t have snow on the ground. Keep in mind, areas just to our north have a deep snow pack in place and that’s going to throw the models for a loop over the next few weeks. The models will consistently underplay the cold coming from the north where that snow is.

Friday is a frigid day with 10-15 Friday morning. It’s likely not as cold because clouds look to scoot in quicker than I originally thought. Those clouds will try to spit out a wintry mix by Friday evening as moisture increases from the southwest…

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With a  frozen ground, we have to be on guard for icy spots developing as the precipitation moves in, especially in the north.

Warmer air then winds the battle giving us rain and some thunder by Saturday. Temps may hit 60 where you live.

Those numbers come crashing down Saturday night into early Sunday as arctic air slams back in. That should set the stage for a period of sleet, freezing rain and some snow. Here’s the GFS…

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Here’s how much freezing rain and sleet that run of the GFS is spitting out…

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The Canadian model shows the mix to thunder to mix/snow scenario very well…

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Given such a dramatic temperature drop with rain changing to a period of wintry precipitation, a quick ice up is possible. Temps on Sunday are showing up very cold on the European. It suggests we hang in the teens and low 20s across central and western Kentucky all day. It then shows Monday morning temps back into the 10-15 degree range.

Another system is going to try and follow that up a few days later, with another one possible right after that…

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