Daily Archives: December 17, 2016

Time posted: 8:57 pm

Saturday Evening Update

Good evening, gang. “Wild” has been the weather word for this weekend for more than a week now on the blog. I don’t think too many folks are going to argue with that one any longer. 😉 From severe thunderstorms to some snow and ice… the big transition is underway.

Thunderstorms can still be strong to severe as they race eastward this evening, but a diminishing trend is already evident. Temps are dropping better than 30-40 degrees in just a few hours behind the cold front sweeping in. We’re already seeing things ice up in the west as a wintry mix develops. That will then engulf the entire state tonight and early Sunday.

The NAM continues to see some accumulations…

nam

With a flash freeze taking place, any sleet or snow will could cause some pretty big issues. A Winter Weather Advisory is already out for western and central Kentucky. Me thinks the NWS in Jackson is missing the boat in not issuing one for the east and southeast. You don’t mess with a flash freeze, guys. Roads get icy in a hurry.

Looking down the road, we have a couple of systems of interest coming at us leading up to Christmas. The first arrives on Thursday and may bring some light rain to light snow…

gfs-2

A much bigger storm system will then develop and work out way Christmas weekend. The models keep going farther south and east with this system, leading to a rain to snow potential. The GFS Parallel…

gfs

The European Model…

euro-2

Folks, from a week away, there’s a chance! 🙂

Check out the cold following that on the European…

euro-3

I leave you with every tool you need to track the transition from storms to winter weather…

Today’s Risk Area
Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current Watches
Current Watches

Possible Watch Areas
Current MDs

I-24  MP 4 @ US 60
Paducah
I-24 @ US 60 MP 4

I-24 MP 7 @ US 62
Paducah
I-24 MP 7 @ US62

I-65 MP 36
Near Bowling Green
I-65 MP 36

I-65 MP 92.4
Elizabethtown

Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway
Louisville
Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway

I-64 @ I-264
Louisville
I-64 @ I-264

US 60 @ US 460
Frankfort
US60 @ US460

I-71/I-75 at I-275
Near Covington
I-71/I-75 @ I-275

I-275 approaching KY 20/Airport
Near Covington
I-275 East of KY 20/Airport Exit

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

Fifth Third Pavilion Live Cam
Downtown Lexington

See you back here tonight for a full update. Enjoy the evening and take care.

18 Comments

Time posted: 12:52 pm

Tracking Strong Storms and a Wintry Blast

Good afternoon everyone.  Our wild weekend of weather is finally here and things are starting to crank up quickly as we go through the afternoon and evening.  We even have the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms across much of the state before we get in on the wintry weather later tonight and Sunday.

Expect a line of thunderstorms to develop late today into the evening and work across the state.  Damaging winds will be the primary concern as this line moves from west to east.  The greatest threat for severe weather is across the southern half of the state into the Tennessee valley.  Even without true severe thunderstorms, winds can still gust to greater than 40 mph starting late today and carrying us through Sunday morning.  This is when the arctic air moves in with a greater than 40 degree temperature drop overnight in just a matter of a few hours.  Once this happens, sleet and snow will take over for a while.  While we won’t have wintry precipitation for more than a few hours, it can come down hard enough to accumulate across much of the state.  The modest sleet and snow accumulations combined with wet roads that will instantly ice up because of falling temperatures will lead to slick travel conditions for the first half of Sunday.

After the main band of wintry weather moves east, leftover light snow showers or flurries will carry us into the rest of the day as temperatures stay in the 20s.  That will set the stage for an arctic cold night with temperatures by Monday morning ranging from the upper teens east to possible high single digits in the north and west.

A couple of interesting systems are showing up late next week and then again late Christmas weekend.  We’ll talk more about that after we get through tonight’s stuff.  I will have another update coming this evening.  For now, I leave you with your wicked weather tracking tools.

Today’s Risk Area
Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current Watches
Current Watches

Possible Watch Areas
Current MDs

Have a great Saturday and take care.

40 Comments

Time posted: 2:33 am

Tracking The Big Changes

Good Saturday, everyone. We have some wicked weather pushing across the region over the next couple of days. By wicked, I mean big temperature swings to go along with thunderstorms to be followed by some sleet and snow.

Overall , my thoughts on the whole setup have not changed. Here’s a quick breakdown of how things look to play out this weekend.

  • Highs today surge into the low 60s on a strong southwesterly wind. Showers and thunderstorms will develop into a line by afternoon and evening.
  • Arctic air diving in behind this line will undercut it, leading to a quick switch to sleet and some snow. That’s not going to last more than a few hours, but can put down some light accumulations…

nam

  • Icy roads will be possible as temps drop into the low 20s Sunday morning.
  • Temps will hold steady and may drop into the teens during the afternoon in the west and central. This air mass is arctic and coming off a deep snowpack to our northwest. The GFS and your apps are about to get crushed on this.
  • Readings by Monday morning have a shot at single digits in a few spots in the west and north…

nam-2

I leave you with regional radar to track the action moving in today…

I will update things later today. Make it a good day and take care.

32 Comments