Daily Archives: December 20, 2016

Time posted: 7:32 pm

Tuesday Evening Update

Good evening, everyone. We continue to keep our eyes on the pattern as we roll into Christmas weekend. This is the “Grinch” storm that will steal any chance of us getting a White Christmas.

Let me start by showing how cold things got this morning…

mesonet

Lots of single digits were showing up and blowing the computer forecasts out of the water. 🙂

The weekend system throws the first shot of rain at us Friday night into Saturday. Can the leading edge of that start as a touch of sleet? That’s a possibility that shows up on the NAM…

nam

The GFS also shows this possibility…

gfs-2

Some healthy rains move through here on Christmas Eve with the main storm moving in here on Monday…

gfs-animation-5

Winds will be very gusty with temps surging toward 60 late Christmas Day into Monday.

How much rain may fall from Friday night through Monday? The GFS shows better than an inch…

gfs-rain-2

Another system will follow that up by the middle of next week into New Years Weekend. I will touch on that later tonight.

Enjoy the evening and take care.

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Time posted: 2:13 am

Tracking The “Grinch” Storm

Good Tuesday, everyone. It’s another absolutely frigid start to the day out there, but things are about to change in a hurry. Unfortunately, this change comes just in time for the big Christmas weekend. A storm I am calling “The Grinch” will bring some much milder air and rain over the holiday period.

Our day is starting with a lot of low and mid teens, and a few single digits. The actual numbers continue to smoke the still too warm model forecasts. Temps this afternoon climb through the 30s and may hit 40 in the south as the sun returns. This will set the stage for a fairly nice Wednesday with temps deep into the 40s with some late clouds increasing.

Those clouds are ahead of a weak cold front dropping in here on Thursday. That front could bring a snow flurry or two, and knock temps down some.

From there, it’s all about this guy showing off…

grinch

That is a storm that cranks across the Rockies and moves into the upper Midwest. That’s a track that will throw some showers our way Christmas Eve into Christmas Day as temps begin to take off winds will also be very gusty during this time.

The actual storm system then moves toward the western Great Lakes by Monday, dragging a cold front our way. That front should have a line of gusty rains with it.

The models are in pretty good agreement with all this, and show another deep storm system following that up into the middle and end of next week.

The GFS…

gfs

GFS Parallel…

gfs-animation-4

That second storm also shows up well on the European Model…

euro-2

I will update things later today. Make it a good one and take care.

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