Daily Archives: December 21, 2016

Time posted: 6:42 pm

Wednesday Evening Update

Good evening, everyone. It’s just minutes before we shut down the greatest basketball state in the country, so this update is going to be short and to the point.

I have no changes with the Christmas weekend Grinch storm. The first surge of rain from that moves in here Friday night into Christmas Eve. Locally heavy downpours are possible, with the heaviest in the west and south. The NAM is spitting out some big numbers for some…

nam

Temps surge on Christmas Day into Monday ahead of a cold front. That front arrives late Monday with gusty showers. Seasonally cold air comes in behind that to set the stage for another system to move in here by Wednesday or Thursday of next week…

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The European Model has a nice shot of cold coming in behind that and would indicate some snow showers and flurries to end 2016.

You can see that shot of cold going all the way into the deep south…

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The European Ensembles agree with the deep trough…

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I’m watching the first week of January for the pattern to try to reload with arctic air. The models are forecasting a big ridge to develop across Alaska. For the past three winters, that has ben the signal for some harsh winter weather into our region. I’m not ready to say that’s real just yet, but the GFS Parallel has a frigid look again…

gfs-gif

We shall see what happens, but that 1983 analog of mine has been a good one across the country, so far. It had a cold December, but not much snow… Just like this December. It did take a harsh and snowy turn into January before breaking mild in February.

Enjoy the evening and take care.

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Time posted: 2:21 am

Tracking The Christmas Weekend Setup

Good Wednesday, everyone. We have slightly milder air coming in here and that’s a sign of things to come. This mild up will also bring rain into town just as Old Saint Nick arrives in the bluegrass state this weekend. That means no White Christmas again this year. Sorry, Bing.

Before the weekend system rolls in, we have a weak cold front swinging across the region on Thursday. That can kick off some afternoon and evening flurries or even a light snow shower.

From there, we get a healthy slug of moisture streaming in here late Friday into Christmas Eve Saturday. The leading edge of this can start as a touch of sleet in the north…

gfs-snow

Locally heavy rains are likely into the first half of Saturday…

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A half to one inch of rain is possible for some areas before Santa hydroplanes into Kentucky.

Scattered showers will then continue into Christmas Day as southerly winds begin to crank. This will blow milder air into the region from the south. Your Christmas weekend temps…

gfs-temps-1

The actual front doesn’t swing in here until Monday night and early Tuesday. A weakening band of showers will be along and ahead of it.

The pattern remains very active after this with another storm showing up by the middle of next week. The European Model has a colder look with a deepening trough following it up to close out 2016…

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I will update things later today. Make it a good one and take care.

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