Daily Archives: December 22, 2016

Time posted: 7:31 pm

Thursday Evening Thoughts

Good evening, everyone. The weather over our Christmas weekend continues to look well behaved with rain and milder temperatures dominating. The pattern into next week continues to take a turn toward more winter on the models.

You know all about the weekend… blah, blah blah. Let’s focus on what comes behind that next week.

We are likely to see another storm system rolling across the region. Milder air comes in ahead of it, but much colder air shows up behind it.

In a rare show of solidarity, we find the European and GFS models on the same page.

European

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euro-3

GFS

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That’s a decent shot of cold for the second half of next week, with wraparound snow showers and flurries.

Both models then follow that up with an arctic front by New Year’s Eve and Day.

European

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GFS

gfs-3

This is a pattern that, if the operational models are correct, could really turn harsh across the country. Watch  the blocking going up near Alaska and how it tries to hook up with a block coming across Greenland…

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That would force a deep trough with arctic air to take over much of the country. But is that setup correct? I’m torn right now because the Ensembles aren’t showing this quite to the extent we are seeing with the operational models.

If we take the Analog years into consideration, they would be on the side of the operational runs.

Enjoy your evening and take care.

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Time posted: 2:09 am

Watching Christmas Weekend And Beyond

Good Thursday, folks. We are tracking a cold front across the region today, but this isn’t the system everyone is interested in. It’s the one blowing into town for the Christmas weekend. This will bring a surge of rain and milder air before winter battles back for the final week of the year.

Today’s front can spawn a snow flurry or two this afternoon and evening. Highs will be a little cooler with upper 30s to low 40s.

Rain arrives at the start of the big Christmas weekend. This means some nasty travel conditions from late Friday into Christmas Eve. Locally heavy downpours are possible during this time and the models are spitting out some decent totals.

The new 3km NAM goes through Saturday morning…

nam

Here’s the GFS rainfall forecast through Christmas Eve…

gfs

Christmas Day will see a few showers around, but it’s not going to rain all day. Temps will rise through the 50s and could hit 60. Those temps will continue into Monday as a cold front swings in here. That should have a band of gusty rains along and ahead of it…

canadian

Temps return to near normal behind that front, but another system makes a run at us a few days later. That unleashes colder air to as we round out the final days of the year…

euro-2

That may be able to deliver some flurries and snow showers, too.

The European Model continues to trend much, much colder in the final days of the year. Check out this arctic blast diving into the country…

euro-3

That happens in response to this monster ridge developing off the west coast of Canada and into Alaska…

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Again, something similar led to our harsh winter periods of the past 3 years. If that block is real, then the ensuing pattern is likely to be an attention getter.

I will update things later today. Enjoy your Thursday and take care.

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