Daily Archives: December 23, 2016

Time posted: 7:36 pm

Christmas Eve Eve Update

Good evening, everyone. Rain continues to increase across the region tonight and that will take us into the start of the Christmas Weekend. I have no changes to my thoughts about how the weekend plays out, but I wanted to drop by for some quick thoughts on next week.

The models continue to show the return of a cold pattern beginning late Wednesday into Thursday. The European Model looks a little too amped up with this storm system…


It unleashes a deep trough with cold air taking over the eastern half of the country…


Snow showers are the end result in that setup by late Thursday and Friday…


The GFS isn’t as impressed with the actual system late Wednesday…


The truth likely lies in between those two model runs for Wednesday and Thursday.

The GFS still likes the cold air and snow showers late Thursday and Friday…


The GFS continues to follow that up as we head into New Year’s Eve and Day


Is that the beginning of another cold pattern across the country? That’s looking more and more like the case. Check out the coast to coast cold taking over into the first week of January. The Canadian Ensembles 5 day temperature departure in Celsius…


I leave you with your radar to track the rains…

See you guys later tonight. Take care.

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Time posted: 12:16 pm

Friday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, gang. I wanted to drop by for a quick update on the all important forecast for Christmas weekend, and the slightly less important forecast for New Year’s.

Nothing has changed leading up to this weekend. Rain (a touch of sleet north?) moves in this evening and will be heavy at times tonight and early Saturday. The action becomes more showery for Christmas Eve and Day as temps climb. Highs on Christmas can hit the 60s for many.

Similar temps will be noted Monday as a cold front gets ready to move in. A band of moderate rain and some thunder will sweep in here along that front. Decent rain totals are likely from Tonight through Monday night…


A stronger cold front marches into town by Thursday and brings the return of winter. Colder temps take over and some snows may fly during this time.

New Year’s Eve and Day continue to send out an interesting signal. Blocking gets established by this time as the EPO, WPO and NAO are forecast to go negative at the same time.

The end result on the current model runs…



GFS Parallel…




I will have another update for you later today. Until then, track the rain in from the west…

Enjoy the day and take care.


Time posted: 2:01 am

Wet And Warm Weather Moving In

Good Friday, folks. We have finally made it to Christmas weekend, but Mother Nature did not get the memo. We have wet and warm weather rolling into town for the next several days. This means wet roads for travelers, and the potential for temps to get a little crazy.

Things do turn much colder for the closing days of the year, but that doesn’t mean a whole lot for our Christmas weekend.

Clouds thicken today as rain moves in from west to east…

Temperatures for Christmas Day into Monday can be near record highs. Look at the absurd model forecasts…


I told you this was a “Grinch” storm. 🙁

A cold front then moves in Monday night with showers and some rumbles of thunder. Locally heavy rains may carry us into Tuesday morning as chillier air moves in.

Big changes them move in with the next system by the middle of next week. The models continue to point toward a more tame spike in temps before a big crash.

The European…


The GFS…


That would mean some snows could fly and try to stick late next week.

The GFS also follows that up with a New Year’s Eve and Day system…


I will shoot you another update or two later today. Make it a great Friday and take care.