Daily Archives: December 27, 2016

Time posted: 7:30 pm

Tuesday Evening Update

Good evening, folks. I wanted to drop by for a quick update on the pattern ahead. It’s one that is going to take on a harsh look for much of the country as we roll into early January. It’s one we’ve talked about potentially developing for a while now, and confidence is high in the overall setup.

We have a fast moving system in here by Wednesday evening. This will produce gusty showers and usher in colder air. A strong northwesterly wind flow will then touch off snow showers and flurries across central and eastern Kentucky. There’s a chance to put some snow on the ground Thursday night and Friday…

gfs-snow

The mountains of West Virginia will get hammered in this setup, and southeastern Kentucky can pick up an inch or so in spots.

The next system moving in here for New Year’s Eve can start as a mix of some rain and snow. Notice how the same GFS run shows this potential as it adds to what is shown above…

gfs-snow-2

The longer range setup into next week looks to begin a harsh winter pattern for much of the country. Major blocking showing up across Greenland and Alaska forces bitterly cold air into much of the country. With the southeast ridge being pressed south and east and trying to fight, it can lead to a storm track just to our south. This shows up on the European model by the middle of next week…

euro

Watch that bitter cold press in over a three day period…

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The European Ensembles for the exact same time are in lock step…

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The European Model shows the first potential winter weather maker developing by Wednesday and Thursday of next week…

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I will have another update later tonight. Take care.

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Time posted: 12:27 pm

Tuesday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, gang. Blue skies are taking over out there this afternoon after a wild past 24 hours. Record high temps, winds gusting better than 40mph, thunderstorms and soaking rains combined to steal the weather show. Now comes some winter weather, with a big surge waiting in the wings.

We get another system to move in here late Wednesday with gusty showers. Much colder air comes in behind this with northwesterly winds producing snow showers and flurries later Thursday into Friday…

gfs

Some light accumulations are a good bet across the central and east Thursday night. Some local 1″ amounts will be possible in the east, especially the higher elevations.

The New Year’s Weekend system then rolls in here with a rain/snow mix for those holiday parties. Another system should follow that up by Monday. Here’s the GFS…

gfs

The Canadian Model is much stronger with the second system…

canadian

Major blocking develops next week and that means… LOOK OUT BELOW. Watch how that forces a DEEP trough to engulf the country…

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This is coast to coast arctic air settling in…

canadian

Can we get some snow systems to accompany the cold? Yes. The ridge in the western Atlantic is going to help us out by fighting back against the cold. That would force some systems to impact out region beginning next week…

gfs-2

I will have another update later this evening. Enjoy the day and take care.

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Time posted: 1:59 am

Winter Tries To Fight Back

Good Tuesday to one and all. We are coming off yet another extreme weather event across the bluegrass state. Monday gave several cities the warmest temps ever recorded this late in the year. So, what does mother nature have for her next act? It’s looking more and more like a period of extreme winter weather across the country in the coming weeks.

Today starts with rain slowly moving out of the state, leaving behind near 2″ in some areas…

A chillier wind will blow, but today’s temps are nowhere near being labeled as cold for this time of year.

Winds will become very gusty again late Wednesday as we another system rolls into the region. This will bring gusty showers in here by Wednesday evening. Some of that may have a couple of snowflakes mixing in on the backside Thursday morning…

gfs-3

Much colder air then filters in here behind that late Thursday into Friday. A strong northwesterly wind flow can spawn some snow showers and flurries across central and eastern Kentucky…

gfs-snowThere’s a chance for a light accumulation from that, especially in the mountains across the east.

New Year’s Weekend will feature a weak system moving in here and may begin as a mix of rain and snow for New Year’s Eve. Temps will be above freezing, so there are no worries about anything other than some wet flakes. Those showers linger into New Year’s Day as we wait on a more potent system to arrive on Monday.

That system may have high winds and thunderstorms with it. Watch both systems on the GFS…

gfs-gif-2

The Canadian is a littler colder with the New Year’s System…

canadian

Just had a power outage after recording a 44mph gust, so I’m ending this update early via my phone.

I’ll talk about the January harsh winter winter weather potential with updates later today. Make it a good one and take care.

 

 

 

 

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