Daily Archives: December 30, 2016

Time posted: 7:50 pm

New Year’s Eve Eve Update

Good evening, gang. Your friendly weatherude is dropping by for an update on a pattern that is locked and loaded for the start of the new year.

I have no changes on the next several days, and my thoughts on the setup for late next week haven’t changed. I’ve been trying to set you up over the past few weeks for the potential of a harsh winter pattern developing. That looks to be the case, and now the models are seeing the pattern I’ve been breaking down.

The European Model is about as harsh as you’re ever going to see from next Thursday through Saturday. It sends out one snow system on Thursday…

euro

It then follows it up with a major winter storm for Friday and Saturday…

euro-2

Taken verbatim, that would make it 3 years in a row for a biggie.

Temps behind whatever storm moves in here can tank. If we have snow on the ground, below zero we go…

euro-3

This has the making of our first THREAT of the season. It’s important to only forecast the pattern and not to bounce around from model run to model run. The pattern favors significant winter weather for our part of the world.

I will update things later tonight. Make it a great evening and take care.

15 Comments

Time posted: 12:55 pm

Quick Midday Update

Good afternoon, gang. Snow showers and flurries did their thing last night and this morning with light accumulations across central and eastern Kentucky. Some local 1″ amounts showed up right on cue in the east and southeast. Now we turn our attention toward a loaded pattern.

The weekend idea hasn’t changed at all, so there’s no reason to rehash it all.

Next week starts with 60 and thunderstorms on Monday, but may end with our first threat level system of the season.

Arctic air spills in here on Wednesday and sets the stage for an active southern storm track. It’s all about reading the pattern and not reacting to each model run showing a different solution with this system. Last night’s GFS kept this system to our south, the new run does not…

gfs

The Canadian also has a nice winter hit…

canadian

The individual members from the GFS Ensembles continue to indicate the winter weather potential across the Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic states…

gfs-snow

Bitterly cold temps come in behind whatever winter system that shows up on Thursday and Friday…

canadian-2

If we can put snow and ice on the ground later next week, temps can go below zero.

I will have another update later this evening. Enjoy the day and take care.

32 Comments

Time posted: 3:10 am

A Loaded Pattern Takes Shape

Good Friday, folks. We are rolling our way into the New Year’s Weekend with snow showers and flurries flying across the region. As this moves away, another system moves in with a mix of some rain and snow as we shut the door on 2016. It’s the start of 2017 that keeps looking more and more interesting.

Today’s snow showers and flurries can put down some light accumulations this morning. With temps below freezing, some slick spots may even develop on roads.

The system moving in here for New Year’s Eve keeps looking like a light mix of rain and some snow…

nam

Another system moves through here on Monday with gusty winds and the chance for some thunderstorms.

From there, we watch an arctic front sweeping in here by Wednesday. That should produce a band of light snow and flurries behind it, but the real story tries to come right after that.

The setup continues to see major blocking going up over the top of a DEEP trough going coast to coast across the country…

euroThat setup will feature an active southern storm track that can bring some significant winter weather to parts of the Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley  and Mid-Atlantic states. Placement of the axis of winter weather will be different on each model and each model run.

It’s interesting to look at the 21 members of the GFS Ensembles to see how they all have this setup, but differ on placement…

gfs-snow

Several of those members have that winter weather axis setting up deep into the south. Where will it ultimately set up? That remains to be seen, but the setup has a good look to it.

This is also a coast to coast very, very cold pattern taking shape…

euro-2

I will have updates on all this coming later today. Enjoy your Friday and take care.

21 Comments