Monthly Archives: January 2017

Time posted: 7:26 pm

Tuesday Evening Thoughts

Good evening, everyone. I wanted to drop by for a quick update on a pattern that looks pretty super-charged over the next week or so. That storm early next week is an attention getter, given the sharp temperature swing taking shape.

In the short-term, we will have a narrow band of rain and snow impacting the northern parts of the state early Wednesday. The GFS keeps showing this…

GFS 2

Colder air finally wins the battle by Thursday and Friday, and we could see a fast-moving streak of some light snow and flurries by Friday.

The Super Bowl Sunday system continues to look like a wintry mix to rain scenario, with the best chance for front end snow in the north and east…

Euro 2

Temps by Monday turn milder as another round of rain moves in…

Euro

The air coming in behind that for Tuesday has trouble written all over it. Check this out…

Euro 3

That air is ahead of a monster storm forecast to develop across the Mississippi River Valley and work toward the Great Lakes. That is being fueled by arctic air surging southward into a full blown spring air mass. The end result could be some nasty storms developing. The GFS…

GFS 3

The European Model is very similar…

Euro 5

If those models are correct, severe weather would be a possibility from the Mississippi Valley into our region.

Less than 24 hours after that, check out the temp forecast…

GFS TEMPS 1

Nothing good comes from temps going from 70 to the teens in just a few days.

Check out the deep trough pushing all that by the middle of next week…

Euro 6

This is a heck of a weather fight brewing, and something has to give. That means it may be a busy time on the blog next week.

Enjoy your evening and take care.

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Time posted: 12:27 pm

Tuesday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, everyone. Winds have hit 40mph at times today as we get a cold front to slowly drop in from the northwest. This will usher in a pretty sharp temp gradient for Wednesday and could bring some rain and snow to the north.

This front pretty much represents the theme of the winter with a constant battle going on. That battle may really ramp it up next week. I will show ya that in a bit.

I mentioned the rain and snow threat in the north tomorrow, and it’s fairly light. Here’s where the GFS thinks the winter weather may be…

GFS Snow 2

Temps in the south may push 60 degrees while that’s taking place.

Colder air pushes in for Thursday and Friday with a weakening band of snow moving our way. Can it hold together to produce some flakes? I think it can.

The Super Bowl weekend system continues to trend weaker on the models and that means it will have less cold air to work with. Still, it can produce a front end surge of wintry weather…

GFS Snow 3

In my last post, I mentioned how the pattern next week has the look of one that goes from 70 and strong thunderstorms, to snow and teens.

Well, here ya go…

GFS 2

GFS GIf

I know some of you think I have resigned from the snow lovers club. I still love my snow, but I’ve been in a spring mindset for a long time now. Unfortunately, mother nature doesn’t care about what my mind wants. 🙂

Here’s the winter deal. In order to get to real spring, we are going to have to endure a period of pretty good winter weather around here. This is not a pattern that just makes a harmless transition to true spring, and I’m hoping we can get it out of our system sooner rather than later.

The deeper it goes, the more it also ups the ante for our spring severe weather season. We’ve had some very quiet springs around here for the past several years. Pure percentages say it’s going to catch up to us.

I will try to update later this evening. Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 2:05 am

Big Temp Swings Move In

Good Tuesday, everyone. We have a cold front working into the region today, and this will bring some big temps wings over the next few days. This front initially hangs around for a few days before finally deciding to push to our south and east, allowing colder air to move in.

Temps today can reach the low and mid 50s in the south with low 40s in the north. Skies stay mainly dry, but I can’t rule out a shower in the north. Winds will stay pretty gusty.

The front then slowly drops southward on Wednesday and brings a healthy temp gradient with it. It should also be able to squeeze out some rain and snow in the north. The GFS is now catching on to this potential…

GFS 2

Much colder air then settles in for Thursday and Friday with 30s for highs. A weak system shears out as it moves in from the west and could spawn some snowflakes.

The weekend system continues to look messy as it moves in Saturday night into Super Bowl Sunday. Rain, snow and a mix is likely with this, but the exact details of this system are days away from being known. The current GFS shows some winter weather impacting out region…

GFS snow

Following that, the GFS shows some big dips in the jet stream through early February…

GFS GIf

That setup can feature additional wild temperature swings that can produce a lot of ugly weather. From 70 and strong storms to teens and snow?  As someone who has been yearning for true spring for the past 6 weeks, that look does not make me a very happy camper.

I will update things later today. Have a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 7:33 pm

Monday Evening Thoughts

Good evening, gang. I wanted to drop by for some quick words on our ever-changing weather pattern across the bluegrass state.

Winds are going to crank tonight and into Tuesday as southwesterly winds gust ahead of a cold front. Gusts may reach 40mph at times. This will push some better air into the region for Tuesday and a part of Wednesday.

This is because a cold front moves in and slows down, with some funky weather possible Wednesday. The far north can see some rain and snow, while the far south sees temps make a run at 60.

The colder air wins the fight Thursday into Friday as some snow showers and flurries try to develop.

From there, we watch a weekend storm system come together to produce a potential mess across our region. Rain, snow and some freezing rain are all possible depending on the storm track. The GFS is taking on a colder look for Sunday…

GFS 2

The European Model is similar…

Euro

Here’s the winter weather accumulation from that run of the European…

Euro 2

We will continue to watch the trends with that system.

See you guys later tonight for an update. Have a great evening and take care.

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Time posted: 12:20 pm

Monday Midday Update

Happy Monday, folks. The sun is making an appearance for many areas, but temps in the central and east aren’t responding very much. Many thermometers in these areas will struggle to the freezing mark.

I wanted to drop by for a quick update on where we go from here. It’s a busy pattern that puts out region on the fence through the coming weekend.

A cold front moves in here on Tuesday with very gusty winds and spiking temps ahead of it. We could see a shower or two as it passes through. That front then slows down and slams on the brakes for Wednesday, setting up a nice north-south temperature gradient. Can we get a weak system to ride this gradient?

The GFS goes back and forth with that system, but the Canadian keeps showing it…

Canadian

Seasonally cold temps settle in for the rest of the week and there could be another weak system move through on Friday.

That’s ahead of a couple of bigger systems potentially impacting our region from this weekend into early next week. The first system is likely to bring rain, snow and some ice our way. Here’s the latest GFS in motion…

GFS GIf

It shows a “wide right” with that second storm coming from the Gulf early next week, but that’s common for the GFS to do.

I will update things this evening. Have a good one and take care.

23 Comments