Monthly Archives: January 2017

Time posted: 7:25 pm

Monday Evening Update

Good evening, folks. Rain has returned to the region and it will keep rolling on and off for much of the next week. This is one of the wetter patterns we have seen in a long long time, but I’m sure someone will yell drought as soon as we get one dry day. 🙂

Some rumbles of thunder may join the party overnight…

Wednesday looks like a chillier and drier day, but the clouds will be tough to shake. Enjoy it because more rain and thunder sweep in here from the southwest Thursday into Friday.

That will set the stage for a MUCH bigger system moving in for later this weekend into early next week. I’ve covered the upper level part of this for a while, now it’s time to start focusing on the lower levels. Expect this to spawn a massive slow-moving storm system right on top of our region. Look at this on the European…

Euro

Euro 2

High winds, thunderstorms, heavy rain giving way to high winds, colder air and the potential for a pocket of rain/snow or snow.

Cutoff lows can get a little wild and this one has some potential to do just that.

The next week can unleash another 2″-4″ of rain across the bluegrass state. This is pretty crazy.

I’ve also been talking about how the cutoff system likely gets the ball rolling toward another back loaded winter with cold and snow. Well, here’s what the Euro shows following that upper low by the middle of next week…

Euro 3

Given the block showing up over the top, watch for that system, similar to the one this weekend, to trend farther south.

The ensembles 5 day temp average to end January…

Euro 4

That’s cold!

Enjoy your evening and take care.

18 Comments

Time posted: 12:19 pm

Monday Afternoon Update

Good MLK Day to one and all. On this day we honor the legacy of Dr. Martin Luther King, we find milder air continuing to surge into the region. This will cause some thunderstorms to blow up later this evening as we have an action packed pattern ahead.

Temps today have been slower to respond than I thought, but the numbers continue to rise as the warm fronts lifts to our north. This allows showers and some thunderstorms to go up across the west. A few of the storms may be strong across that area before weakening as they head northeast…

The showers and thunder will carry us into Tuesday before a one day break in the action on Wednesday. This will lead to slightly chillier air before another surge of mild and storms by Thursday. Locally heavy rains carry us into Friday.

You think we get a break after that? Nope. Here comes the monster upper low this weekend into early next week. The GFS is finally getting on board…

GFS

Here’s the surface map from that same model run…

GFS

That type of track would give us thunderstorms and heavy rain to start with the possibility of snow under the track of the upper low. High winds would also be a big issue.

As I’ve said, wild things can happen with big upper lows like that.

That’s the system that unleashes the back loaded winter scenario for the 4th straight year. The GFS Ensembles show a very cold look later next week…

GFS 2

It’s one extreme to the other and that seems to be the calling card of this winter.

I will have another update coming your way later today. Make it a good one and take care.

17 Comments

Time posted: 2:12 am

Another Active Week Of Weather

Good Monday, everyone. After a super-duper ugly weekend of weather, we are heading into a brand new week featuring some more ugly stuff, but with a twist. Temps will be much, much milder as we await the arrival of another back loaded winter that threatens to last into early spring. Blah.

Let’s begin with our MLK Day and roll forward. Milder air surges in here on a gusty southwesterly wind that will touch off some scattered showers. Those showers will increase from this evening as thunderstorms join the mix…

Temps should hit 60 or better in many areas today, but Tuesday may see the numbers really take off just ahead of a cold front. Winds may also hit 40mph as additional showers and thunderstorms rumble through here.

That action is ahead of a fast-moving cold front that will knock the numbers down some into Wednesday. It’s a day that may actually be mainly dry with some sunshine. Wait… What? Mother Nature, how dare you throw some sun into our weather pity party!!

This won’t last long as another wet weather maker develops in the deep south and rolls in from the southwest. This will have an increase in showers and thunderstorms later Thursday into Friday. These can dump additional heavy rains. Check out the GFS rain forecast through Friday…

GFS Rain

Temps will come way up during this time and should hit the 60s… Again. Given this wet and mild week, we are likely to see some buds popping out on trees and we may even hear frogs. Honestly, this is likely to happen.

Unfortunately, those buds and frogs are going to be in for a world of hurt later this month into February, and much of March. I’ve been talking about how this is likely to be another winter where it saves the worst for last. That’s been the theme of the last several winters, but I didn’t think this one would follow that trend. I’m probably going to be wrong on that one.

The change begins later this weekend into early next week with a big cutoff low drifting across the region…

Euro 2

That can lead to a hefty storm system working across the Ohio Valley and into the east…

Euro

That can lead to some pretty wild weather and is something for us to watch for in the coming days.

I will update things later today. Enjoy the day and take care.

6 Comments

Time posted: 6:15 pm

Sunday Evening Update

Good afternoon, gang. The ugly weather keeps on keepin’ on across the bluegrass state. Even as temps take off in the days ahead, things still aren’t going to be very pretty. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms will come calling… Each… And… Every… Day.:(

While the March week of weather is going on, Old Man Winter is lying in the weeds and ready to pounce.

Let’s start with the current weather. I’ll let the tracking tools do the ugly talking for me…

Highs Monday and Tuesday will surge toward 60 and then into the 60s. Gusty southwesterly winds will blow, with showers and thunderstorms increasing.

We may catch a chilly break on Wednesday, but more showers and thunderstorms work in later Thursday and Friday. All tolled, another 1″-2″ of rain is a good between through Friday. Can you say soggy?

We continue to watch this pattern evolve toward another back loaded winter. One of the cool ways to illustrate this change is to look at the 500mb anomalies for the next 10 days on the European Model. Watch how the big warm ridge across the USA gets pushed north into Canada. As it does so it strengthens into a healthy block allowing bowling ball winter systems to roll eastward across the country…

Euro

That first massive cutoff low blows up across the region about a week from now. Watch how the surface low rapidly deepens toward the northwest…

Euro 3

Yowza!

Here’s a different look at that storm system…

Euro

Cutoffs like that can produce some very extreme weather and that is something we will be mindful off as we go through the next week.

Beyond that, the ensembles continue to go toward something like this…

Euro 5 Euro 6

Have I mentioned I’m not a fan of back loaded winters? 😉

Enjoy your evening and take care.

20 Comments

Time posted: 2:21 am

Our Ugly Weekend Ends… Ugly

Good Sunday, everyone. We continue to deal with a serious case of the uglies. Our weather has been nothing short of pitiful looking for the past several days, and today will be no different. If you’re looking for a lot of pretty ahead, it’s not happening. As a matter of fact, this pattern is about to kick it up a few notches with another back loaded winter waiting in the wings.

Temps today will be colder than what we had on Saturday as our front oscillates a bit south. This means middle to upper 30s will be common for the northern half of the state with mainly 40s south of that. Throw in more low clouds, fog and showers, and you have another nasty weather day…

Our front returns to the north as a warm front on Monday. Gusty southwesterly winds will usher in much milder temps with readings anywhere from the middle 50s to the middle 60s. Late day showers and thunderstorms will increase from the southwest and carry us into Monday night…

GFS

As a cold front marches in here later Tuesday into Tuesday night, additional showers and thunderstorms will develop…

GFS 2

This action can drop another inch or two of rain on am already waterlogged bluegrass state.

Colder air will come in behind that for Wednesday, but temps will still be a little above normal. Day I say we can see some sun for a short time?

Another system then moves in here by late Thursday and Friday with additional rounds of showers and some thunder…

Canadian

This will be followed up by the potential of a massive cutoff low to develop late next weekend into early the following week. The European Model shows this massive system…

Euro

Check out the wild look at the surface…

Euro 2

That system likely ushers in our back loaded winter.

I will update things later today, so check back. Enjoy your Sunday and take care.

26 Comments