Daily Archives: January 1, 2017

Time posted: 7:24 pm

New Year’s Update

Good Sunday and Happy New Year. We are rolling into the first work week of the year on a very active weather note. Things start out with thunderstorms and end with arctic air and snow possibilities.

Let’s start things out by tracking some scattered showers in from south to north…

Gusty south to southwesterly winds crank up tonight and Monday ahead of a low pressure working into the region. This will touch off showers and thunderstorms through Monday night and some of them can be strong. This looks like a nasty severe weather outbreak across the south with a low risk of severe across Kentucky…

An arctic front moves in here Tuesday night with the possibility of some snowflakes just behind it. This sets the stage for a very cold stretch of weather and a good chance for, at least, a light snowfall. As expected, each model run handles the Thursday through Saturday systems differently.

The GFS had lost the late week system for the past several days. All of a sudden, it finds it again this afternoon…

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Here’s the snowfall map from that particular run (it will change many times)…

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At least for one run, the GFS fits the “lower Ohio Valley/Tennessee Valley” setup the pattern has been suggesting for a while now.

The individual members of the GFS have several members showing a healthy system…

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The GFS and its Ensembles have a friend in the Japanese model…

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The Canadian Model has a light snowfall Thursday into Thursday night…

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It then follows that up with a suppressed system, bringing a snow swipe to southeastern Kentucky later Friday…

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The European Model has a similar look with the Thursday system…

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It also shows a suppressed solution for the Friday storm…

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The models won’t fully get a handle on all this until the energy is into the country and can be properly sampled. That should happen Monday into Tuesday.

All I can say is the pattern favors, at least, a light snowfall in our region. It also favors arctic cold temps from late week into the weekend.

The Canadian puts some snow on the ground and gives you these temps for next weekend…

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Looking beyond that period, this is a pattern that can repeat itself the following week and into much of the month. One way to see that is to expand the GFS Ensembles snow maps we looked at above. Let’s add on another week to those…

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Notice how several members show a snow threat into the DEEP south? That would be indicate some pretty big cold shots as well.

I will hook you up with another update later tonight. Happy New Year and take care.

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Time posted: 1:43 am

Action Packed Start To 2017

Happy New Year, Everyone! Here’s hoping 2017 brings each of you nothing but prosperity and happiness in whatever form you want. 🙂 In terms of the weather and 2017, the new year is kicking off with a very active setup right out of the gate.

This New Year’s Day may feature a shower or two with temps generally in the 40s, with some 50s in the south and west.

Temps will actually rise overnight into early Monday as southwesterly winds develop. This will boost temps deep into the 60s for many areas…

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With an area of low pressure passing across the region, showers and strong thunderstorms will develop as the day wears on…

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High winds and heavy rains are very possible for the second day of the new year.

Arctic air will then surge in here Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Check out some of the model forecast numbers by Wednesday morning…

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This is where we run into some question marks. Each model run is a little different with what they think happens with a couple of systems passing to our south late this week.

The lead system on Thursday may wind up trying to become the bigger deal as the arctic cold threatens to crush the second system behind it. That said, the new European Model is trending back toward a bigger system…

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That is showing some pretty good snows around here and is close to getting back to what it was showing a few days ago.

The Canadian Model is also pretty close to showing something bigger…

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What does all this show us? That forecasting the pattern is a much better way to go instead of waffling with each model run.

We’re still a few days away from the models fully understanding all the variables at play with this.

The arctic cold later this week into the weekend is impressive. The Canadian did well with the December cold shots we had. Here’s what it thinks will happen this coming weekend…

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I will have updates later today. Happy New Year and take care.

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