Daily Archives: January 2, 2017

Time posted: 7:30 pm

Monday Evening Musings

Good evening, everyone. It certainly feels the part of spring out there this evening with mild temps and an increase in showers and thunderstorms. Don’t get too used to it, Old Man Winter is about to crash the party in a few days.

I have no changes on the showers and storms tonight. Hit the radars page up top to do some tracking.

What happens later this week? That’s the million dollar question that is still a day or two away from being answered. Let’s see what the current model runs are thinking.

The European Model looks a lot like the earlier run from the Canadian. It shows a light snowfall across the entire state on Thursday, with the second storm too far south and east. Here’s the Thursday system…

euro

The arctic cold coming in behind that then crushes the next system…

euro-2

The new GFS is also a bit farther south with this system, but nowhere near as suppressed…

gfs-gif-5

The GFS Parallel is farther north…

gfs-gif-4

The Japanese Model still has more of a Kentucky hit…

jma

We have to get the energy fully into western North America before the models can get a good sample of it. Once that happens, you can sometimes see big model swings. Those could go either direction.

I will update things once again later tonight. Enjoy your March-like evening and take care.

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Time posted: 12:36 pm

Monday Midday Update

Good afternoon, gang. Its a busy forecast pattern, so I’m making a quick stop to keep you updated on how things stand for this first week of the new year.

It’s a very mild and windy day out there as temps shoot into the 60s. Showers and thunderstorms will overspread the region from the southwest later today into tonight. The overall severe threat is pretty low, but there is likely to be a corridor of very heavy rain setting up. This may cause some local high water concerns tonight.

Track away…

Once the arctic front moves in early Wednesday, it’s game on for some fun tracking of a potential winter weather makers. The first comes on Thursday, with a potential bigger system later Friday into Saturday.

That’s the system we find a lot of disagreement on. The GFS continues to have a very healthy system taking a southern track and then into the Mid-Attlatic…

gfs

The GFS has a crusher for the Tennessee Valley into the Mid-Atlantic states, with some big snows for parts of Kentucky…

gfs-snow

Again, that’s one run of one model. Each and every time you look at a new version of these models, they will change from this far out.

If you believe in the famous north and west trend of systems as we get closer, that’s right where you want this to be at this point.

The GFS Ensembles are also targeting the lower Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley into the Mid-Atlantic states…

gfs-snow-2

The Canadian Model isn’t buying what the GFS is cooking. It brings a swath of 1″-3″ snows across the state on Thursday…

canadian

The follow up system then gets crushed…

canadian-2

Why the difference in how the models handle the second system? Much of it may be with how the Thursday system plays out. The weaker that is, the better the chance the follow up system can grow into something big.

The Friday/Saturday system comes from a disturbance forecast to be near Washington state on Thursday. Watch how the GFS takes that across the country and keeps it fairly in tact…

gfs

Now, watch how the Canadian Model takes that same system and totally shears it out, leaving nothing in tact…

canadian

If you want a big winter storm around here, you want to see that system cross the country and stay in tact. If you don’t want a winter storm, hope it gets crushed by the northern branch of the jet stream digging in.

Which solution will win out? I can’t answer that at the moment, and suspect it won’t be until tomorrow or early Wednesday before the models get a firm grasp on it all.

I will update things later today. Make it a great day and take care.

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Time posted: 2:25 am

Tracking Storms and Late Week Winter Weather

Good Monday, everyone. The holidays are now officially behind us and it’s full steam ahead into the new year. The weather pattern is kicking it up a notch or ten this week with thunderstorms giving way to arctic air and the potential for late week snow.

Let’s start with the threat for showers and storms out there today.

Winds will be very gusty from the southwest as temps surge into the 60s. Scattered showers will be possible with the main action coming this evening into tonight. That’s when thunderstorms flare up with high winds and heavy rainfall the primary threats.

Areas to our south may be in for a severe weather outbreak today, and a few strong to severe storms can reach Kentucky. The best chance is in the west and south…

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current Watches
Current Watches

Possible Watch Areas
Current MDs

Arctic air then moves in here Tuesday night into Wednesday as a front slams in from the northwest. Some light snows are possible just behind this boundary.

This is where things continue to get interesting. For nearly two weeks, I’ve been talking about the pattern targeting the lower Ohio Valley into the Tennessee Valley for winter weather in the first week of the new year. That certainly appears to be the case later this week into the coming weekend. The question is… To what extent? Some light stuff or a lot more? Both options are on the table.

Several days ago, the forecast models all had a threatening look. Those same models then lost the entire setup for a few days, even though I preach and preach how the models show something then totally lose it in days 4-7 then find it again. Sure enough, the models are doing just that.

Let’s start with the European Model as it keeps trending toward what it had a few days back. This model throws accumulating snow at us on Thursday, then brushes us with a bigger system it develops. Each passing run is stronger and farther north and west with the second system for Friday into Saturday…

euro-2

Verbatim, that run shows a few to several inches possible from Thursday through early Saturday.

The Canadian model also shows the Thursday snow maker…

canadian

And, compared to earlier runs, is also going farther west and north with the Friday/Saturday system…

canadian-2

Man, the European and Canadian Models are very close to going big.

Speaking of going big, that’s exactly what the GFS did. It has a much weaker system for Thursday as it takes all the energy out at once, creating a much bigger storm for Friday and Saturday…

gfs

For fun, the snow map from that particular run…

gfs-snow

The computer models and their snow maps will change a lot from run to run over the next day or so. We should start to see them figuring this out by Tuesday.

While I don’t put a lot of stock in any one model solution, it’s interesting to note how many GFS Ensemble members are “in the ballpark” with what he operational model has with this setup…

gfs-snow-2

At this point, I cannot endorse any of the above models posted in this blog. We are having a discussion on each of them, but it’s really good to see the models showing winter weather in the exact areas I have been highlighting by looking at the pattern setting up.

We still have a bit before we know the extent of the winter weather. Will this become “threat” worthy? Possibly.

I will have updates later today. Make it a good one and take care.

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