Daily Archives: January 3, 2017

Time posted: 7:34 pm

First Call For Snowfall

Good evening, folks. Old Man Winter is about to make a triumphant return to the bluegrass state over the next several days. This comes with arctic air and our first widespread snowfall from Thursday into Friday.

It’s our first “First Call For Snowfall” of the season…

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For those of you not familiar with how I do things, I put out a first call, then update it and then throw out the “Final Call For Snowfall” before the event starts.

I will start by saying, this looks like an overachiever and I may be underdone in a few spots. Areas of eastern and southeastern Kentucky can see some local 4″ amounts. The GFS shows this well…

gfs-snow

Some of the individual members of the GFS Ensembles are also showing a bigger event…

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The European Ensembles are made up of 51 different members. Here’s the average snowfall from those 51 different runs…

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That’s pretty healthy to see from that many different runs.

The Hi Res NAM also shows some healthy totals, but is likely way underdone in the southeast…

nam

Slick travel is likely to develop Thursday and carry us into Friday as arctic cold temperatures take full control.

The next system is still forecast to just brush southeastern Kentucky, but there is still some wiggle room on the models with this one.

Overnight lows this weekend into Monday can drop into the single digits for much of the state.

I will have a new call for snowfall on WKYT-TV tonight at 11 and on the blog with my late night update.

Enjoy the evening and take care.

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Time posted: 1:36 pm

Arctic Cold and Snow Update

Good Tuesday afternoon, everyone. We are about to go into a very cold period that will likely put snow on the ground across much of our part of the world. I should have a first call map out later today, but I wanted to drop by for a quick update on what the forecast models look like.

As arctic air surges in here tonight and Wednesday, some snow flurries will be possible. From there, we watch a disturbance pass across the region Thursday into Thursday night. This will have a band of light snow with it and it’s likely to put down accumulations.

The past few snowfall runs from the GFS…

gfs-snow

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The individual members of the GFS Ensembles have some potential…

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The WPC has even placed eastern Kentucky in a slight risk for 4″+ of snow through Friday morning…

hpc

I think you could probably extend that into eastern Tennessee, too. For the record, I do expect slick travel will lead to some cancellations and delays Thursday and/or Friday.

One thing to watch for with this, is some enhancement of the snow taking across the central and east by Thursday night into Friday morning. The Canadian shows this…

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The European Model also has this, and then shows a very close call with the late Friday-Saturday storm system…

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That brushes southeastern Kentucky with some snows, and the Canadian does the same thing…

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It really would not take much model correction to pull that storm farther to the north and west, and that’s what we will watch for as we get within 72 hours of it.

Regardless, the temps late this week through the weekend look frigid. Single digit lows are possible from Saturday through Monday. The Canadian continues to be the coldest of the bunch with the low temps…

canadian-3

Even if we add several degrees onto those numbers, it’s still bitterly cold!

I will update things later today. Have a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 2:22 am

All Eyes On A Winter Weather Setup

Good Tuesday, everyone. We have one more March-feeling day before some dramatic changes press into the bluegrass state. These changes will bring arctic air into town, with the increasing threat to put snow on the ground before the week is over.

Before we get to the winter weather part of the program, we still have numerous showers out there today. Another rumble of thunder will also be possible with temps holding between 55-60 for most of the day…

Arctic air then surges in here overnight and early Wednesday. A few snowflakes may be right behind this front as readings drop into the upper 20s and low 30s then hold there all day.

The scenario for the end of the week into the weekend continues to be a little problematic. The late night forecast models are trying to take our Friday/Saturday system back toward the north and west. I will get to that in a moment, because we need to talk about a light snowfall ahead of that for Thursday into Thursday night.

You can see this system showing up on the NAM…

nam

That’s likely a little underdone with the coverage. In looking at this system, there is a good chance for most of the state to get in on a light snowfall during this time. With temps solidly below freezing, some slick roads would develop.

The Canadian Model also shows the Thursday system very well, and is now trying to pull the second storm farther north and west. It actually brushes southeastern Kentucky with additional accumulating snows …

canadian

That’s a pretty big jump from the earlier run, and the European Model did the same…

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The GFS Parallel is farthest north of them all, bringing snow to much of the state…

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This system is just getting into the area to where it can be properly sampled and ingested into the computer models. There is still a lot of time and room for adjustments with this system over the next few days.

Very cold air comes in behind this for the weekend and the Canadian is going crazy with the cold…

canadian

I doubt the numbers get THAT cold, but it’s giving you an idea of the air mass we are dealing with.

I will have updates later today, so check back. Make it a great Tuesday and take care.

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