Daily Archives: January 9, 2017

Time posted: 6:16 pm

Monday Evening Update

Good evening, everyone. I wanted to drop by for an update on a very busy setup taking shape for the next week or so. It’s a pattern that gives us some wild temperature variations, which can lead to everything from thunderstorms to some ice.

Let’s begin with the surge of moisture moving in late tonight into Tuesday. With a frozen ground temps close to freezing, this could begin as a touch of freezing rain. Notice how the NAM shows that on the leading edge…

nam

As that moves through, temps begin to increase as winds absolutely howl. Winds are a big player this week and can reach 40mph at times.

A cold front brings showers our way later Tuesday, then lifts back to the north by Wednesday. That should give us some thunder chances…

nam

Thursday is SUPER WINDY AND MILD with temps deep into the 60s. Showers and some thunder will be noted into Thursday night as the leading edge of arctic air closes in. The numbers for Friday continue to look threatening for some ice across parts of the state…

euro

Here’s a better look at the dramatic temps drop…

euro-4

Here’s where the European has us by Friday afternoon…

euro-2

Notice the magic 32 degree line digs pretty deep into Kentucky as precipitation is ongoing. That could very well mean a period of freezing rain into Friday night.

After that, we may see that front head back to the north as a warm front by Saturday night into Sunday. That could return our temps to the 60 for a day or two, ahead of another storm system.

Precipitation totals over the next week and change continue to run on the high side…

GFS

gfs-rain

CANADIAN

canadian

Here’s hoping the warmer air can win the battle for the entire event. We want no part of ice!

I will update things later tonight. Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 2:22 am

Tracking A Volatile Week Ahead

Good Monday, everyone. We are coming off a harsh stretch of weather across the Commonwealth of Kentucky, complete with bitterly cold temps and snow. One would think this may be a hard act to follow. but Mother Nature isn’t in a very nice mood. This is a very extreme weather pattern setting up in the coming days.

Clouds are rolling through the state today as temps rebound into the 30s for highs. These clouds may spit out some snowflakes at times early on…

Winds are going to crank later tonight into Tuesday as milder air begins to push in. Gusts to 40mph will be possible and this kicks off a very windy few days of weather.

Showers will then develop and move in here on Tuesday as a cold front moves in. That front will then put the brakes on and head back to the north Tuesday night and Wednesday. Some thunder will be possible during this time. Here’s the NAM…

nam

Temps by Thursday can surge to 60 on a strong southwesterly wind flow. This is ahead of another arctic front with temps -20 to -30 behind it in the upper Midwest. Cold air is much more dense and heavy than warm air, and it can be tough to slow down.

The southern edge of that arctic air spreads out and likely presses into Kentucky for Friday into Saturday. Just how much of a surge it gets into the state is going to be crucial, as a lot of precipitation will be breaking out at the same time. Check the temps on the new GFS…

gfs-2

That’s a lot colder than previous runs of the GFS, and is my concern going forward. With warmer air on top of cold temps at the surface, you can get a nasty mix of precipitation. The GFS…

gfs

The model is showing a 1052mb arctic high moving across the Great Lakes. That would be funneling in low level cold air from the north, as the flow upstairs is coming from the south and southwest.

Here’s what that particular run of the model shows for Freezing rain accumulation…

gfs-snow

Sleet accumulation…

gfs-snow-2

All of that can shift farther south or north depending on how the temperature battle goes. Will the arctic high to the north flex and drill the low-level cold in here? Will the southern surge of spring temps be able to hold on just enough to keep the 32 degree line north of the Ohio River?  It’s going to be a heck of a fight, but a fight that could have significant implications on our weather.

The latest European Model is close to the GFS…

euro-4

What’s amazing about this is, we could go from the 60s to ice in less than 24 hours, then go from ice to 60 over the following 24 hours. That, my friends, would be wild.

Not to be lost in the shuffle is the potential for a lot of precipitation to fall over the next week to 10 days. Here’s hoping none of it is in ice and that the rain is spread out over a long enough time period to preclude flooding.

I will have updates later today. Make it a good one and take care.

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