Daily Archives: January 11, 2017

Time posted: 7:30 pm

Wednesday Evening Thoughts

Good evening, folks. Warmer temps continue to surge into the region as a warm front drifts to our north. This will open the floodgates for a spring-like day on Thursday. That “spring” feel will go the other way quickly by early Friday as an ice threat shows up for parts of the state.

That ice threat still has us walking a very fine line across the bluegrass state. The greatest chance for some freezing rain will be across the north. The latest freezing rain threat maps from the WPC really show that well…

WPC

WPC 2

WPC 3

WPC 4

Those maps closely resemble the freezing rain map from the European Model…

Euro

We have to wait and see exactly where that 32 degree line sets up, but it’s safe to say it will be in the vicinity of northern Kentucky.

Once we get into Sunday and Monday, temps surge again on a strong southwesterly flow. That flow is ahead of a slow moving upper level that will cause additional showers and thunderstorms to develop and roll across the region. Rain totals over the next week are impressive…

GFS 2

Obviously, those kinds of totals can cause some high water issues.

Once we get through all that, the same pattern of the past 6 weeks shows up as things trend much colder. The European Ensembles from WeatherBell shows the return very well…

Euro 2

The GFS is almost identical…

GFS Gi 6

I will update things later tonight. Make it a great evening and take care.

13 Comments

Time posted: 12:36 pm

Wednesday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, everyone. We have a warm front lifting back to the north across the region and it’s bringing heavy rain and a clap or two of thunder. Much milder air then surges in here, but a wilder change of air masses is on the way in the coming days.

First and foremost, let’s track today’s rain…

Temps head toward 60 behind this front and may stay there all night long. Wow.

The arctic front then moves in Thursday night, erasing the mild from northwest to southeast. Temps by Friday morning drop into the low and middle 30s and this could touch off some freezing rain in the north and west. The WPC outlook for freezing rain from Friday morning through Saturday morning…

wpc

That follows along with our thinking that northern Kentucky has the greatest risk for some freezing rain. The new Canadian Model has a rather ugly look in the north and far west…

canadian

That map goes through Sunday.

The GFS continues to be slightly warmer with less ice across the board, but still hits the far north…

gfs-snow

The NAM only goes¬†through Saturday, but is farther south than the GFS…

nam

I suspect it may not be until Thursday before the models fully get a handle on how far south the 32 degree line actually gets. The models do not do well with such shallow, low-level cold air.

I will update things later today and on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm.

Have a great day and take care.

9 Comments

Time posted: 1:27 am

Buckle Up For A Wild Weather Ride

Good Wednesday, folks. The overriding theme of the winter pattern has been one of extremes. Let’s take the past week for instance. We had thunderstorms that gave way to accumulating snows and 5 straight days of single digit lows somewhere across the state. This was followed up by 50mph winds and more thunderstorms. Again… that’s just the past week of weather.

I said last week this pattern would likely repeat through January and into February, and I see no reasons to doubt that. There’s not a whole lot about the weather that we can label as “normal” anymore.

Given this rinse and repeat pattern, let’s fire it back up for the days ahead. We have thunderstorms ready to give way to the potential for freezing rain for parts of the state.

Today will be very windy with gusts reaching greater than 40mph, again. Gusty showers and thunderstorms will develop as a warm front lifts to the north across the state…

Temps will be chilly this morning, but quickly rise behind this warm front. As a matter of fact, those readings will rise all night long and could be near 60 when you wake up Thursday morning.

Gusty showers and some thunderstorms will then sweep back in here ahead of an arctic front. How far south this front gets before slowing down is THE main factor in whether or not you get plain old rain or some periods of freezing rain. The Hi-Res NAM shows a good push of cold by Friday morning…

nam

Temps at or below freezing during this time would have some frozen precipitation.

Watch how the Hi-Res RPM model shows the axis of freezing rain trying to set up across the northern half of the state Friday into early Saturday…

rpm

The NAM is also hitting parts of the north during this same time…

nam-2

The Canadian Model is similar with the thermal profile, but has much less of a precipitation shield…

canadian

Look at those totals in Missouri and Kansas! Holy cow!

The GFS continues to be the warmest model, but has some healthy ice across the far north…

gfs-snow

As you can see, the farther north you live, the better the chance on some ice Friday into Saturday.

Once past this, expect a slow-moving cutoff low to develop across the Mississippi Valley. This will cause temps to surge again late Sunday into Monday. The flow with this is also a very wet one with repeat showers and thunderstorms into early next week. The GFS rainfall from today through next Tuesday…

gfs-rain

The pattern over the next few weeks is loaded with potential big cutoff lows. Those can bring some wild, wet and white weather with them. There is no shortage of action with this setup and it’s going to make for some very fun tracking.

I will hook you up with additional updates later today. Make it a good one and take care.

18 Comments