Daily Archives: January 12, 2017

Time posted: 7:28 pm

Thursday Evening Update

Good Thursday evening, gang. Our cold front is marching across the state with gusty showers and thunderstorms, and a big time temperature drop. This will set the stage for much colder temps over the next few days and the potential for a little ice in the north.

My thoughts on the next few days have not changed much at all. Ice is possible in the north and west through Saturday with chilly showers elsewhere.

The pattern will then turn back toward a milder one with showers and thunderstorms returning in waves next week. This southwest to northeast flow can put down heavy rains into our region…

European Model

Euro 2

GFS Ensembles

GFS Rain 2

A lot of water can fall across our region over the next week and change.

Once past this week ahead, winter threatens to take over just around the same time it has each of the past 3 winters. That’s something I didn’t think would happen this year, but mother nature does her own thing. This is what I’ve been alluding to over the past few weeks.

Dr. Judah Cohen has a series of tweets explaining how this pattern threatens to go into the tank…

Right on cue, we are seeing the operational models and the ensembles going in that direction. The latest GFS…

GFS Gif 7

I leave you with your regional radar and temperature map to track the current changes…

Have a great evening and take care.

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Time posted: 12:22 pm

Tracking A Few Strong Storms

Good afternoon, folks. We have a powerhouse of a cold front marching into Kentucky and this can touch off a few strong thunderstorms. That’s generally the case when you get a 30-40 degree temperature difference from one side of a front to the other.

Damaging winds will be the primary threat from any of the storms going up. Even outside of storms, winds can gust to 50mph at times.

I’ll talk about what comes behind the front in just a bit, but let’s get to the tracking tools right out of the gate…

Today’s Risk Area
Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current Watches
Current Watches

Possible Watch Areas
Current MDs

We will see temps dropping below freezing by Friday morning across the northern half of the state. This cold can touch off a period of light freezing rain, but a lot of the precipitation may temporarily end at that time.

We know there will be a huge temperature difference from north to south across the region over the next few days. That’s a given. What remains to be seen is exactly where the 32 degree line sets up as additional waves of precipitation move in.

The farther north you are, the better the chance of seeing freezing rain from later Friday through Saturday night. The Canadian Model freezing rain accumulation map remains largely unchanged…

Canadian

You can clearly see how the far west and far north have the best chance at freezing rain, but those will come at different times.

Milder air then surges northward again by later in the weekend into Monday. This could open up the floodgates for additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the middle of the week. The GFS keeps spitting out some impressive rain totals…

GFS Rain

After all this back and forth of the seasons, winter surges back in. Can it finally take control of the pattern across this region? This has happened to varying degrees in each of the past 3 winters. It seems like our overall weather patterns are very repetitive and this year may be no different. I will show you some interesting developments with my evening update or later tonight.

Enjoy the afternoon and take care.

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Time posted: 1:45 am

Spring To Winter To Spring

Good Thursday, everyone. Our wild temperature ride is just getting started as a surge of spring has engulfed the bluegrass state. This will soon be replaced by a huge drop in temps tonight and then another huge spike in temps late in the weekend and early next week.

All of this will give us the potential for thunderstorms, freezing rain, heavy rain… Then more thunderstorms. Normal? Who the heck wants to be normal, anyway? 🙂

Temps today are deeeeep into the 60s and may flirt with 70 in the south. Winds are going to absolutely crank and can reach 40-45mph at times. Showers and thunderstorms then sweep in here along and ahead of a cold front…

Temps will then crash from northwest to southeast this evening and will drop more than 30 degrees. Check out the numbers by Friday morning…

NAM

Areas that are below freezing can see a touch of freezing rain early Friday. The best chance for that will be across the north and the far west.

That boundary will then hang around through Saturday with a better than 20 degree spread in temps from north to south. The best chance for freezing rain continues to be across the north, but odds favor significant icing staying north and west of Kentucky.

That said, the Canadian continues to show some hefty ice totals in the north…

Canadian

A quick look at the new European Model finds it showing a similar swath of ice in the north.

Temps then surge from south to north later this weekend into Monday, and should hit the 60s once again. Gusty showers and thunderstorms will then return, with a bigger system moving in here right after that. Check this out…

GFS Gif 6

That’s a lot of rain showing up on the GFS through the middle of next week…

GFS Rain

After we get through this Spring to Winter to Spring setup, we find the return of real winter…

GFS

I will have updates coming your way later today, so check back. Make it a great day and take care.

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