Daily Archives: February 6, 2017

Time posted: 7:29 pm

Monday Evening Update

Good evening, gang. March weather keeps on dominating our winter pattern with lots of ups and downs rolling on. The setup out there tonight into Tuesday can deliver high winds to go along with strong to severe thunderstorms.

The initial threat this evening is across the western half of the state, then rolls eastward later tonight through Tuesday. Damaging winds and some hail are the primary players. I will get your tracking tools in a bit.

Let’s talk about the interesting setup for Wednesday and Thursday. Colder air continues to seep in from the northwest and that will set up one heck of a temp gradient. I can see the southeast hitting the 60s at the same time the 30s are showing up in the north and west.

As the cold air pushes in, a wave of low pressure develops with an increase in rain and snow. As the low deepens to our east, northwesterly winds would cause snow showers and flurries into Thursday morning. Here’s the GFS…

GFS

The European Model also shows some snow…

Euro

That’s a healthy cold shot moving in, but it doesn’t have staying power. As a matter of fact, it gets totally wiped out by Friday as southwesterly winds kick back in. That brings the well above normal temps back in here for the weekend…

GFS TEMPS 1

Highs in the 60s will be likely with the potential for showers and thunderstorms increasing. That’s ahead of a cold front that slows down across the region. The models indicate a big piece of upper level energy hanging back across the southwestern part of the country.

Watch how the European Model then ejects that system out and tries to form a big winter system next week…

Euro 2

We are not going to get out of this setup without paying a price to Old Man Winter.

Here are your evening weather trackers…

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current Watches
Current Watches

Possible Watch Areas
Current MDs

Enjoy your evening and take care.

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Time posted: 2:41 am

Strong Storms and High Winds Possible

Good Monday, everyone. A big storm system is coming together across the plains states and this will bring a little taste of wild weather to Kentucky. It’s a battle of spring and winter, and that means some pretty big fluctuations in our weather.

Today is a windy and mild day with highs from 55-60 in most areas as our flow turns to the southwest. That will bring an increase in showers and thunderstorms from southwest to northeast. Some of those storms this afternoon and evening could be strong or locally severe in the west. That’s the area the Storm Prediction Center will be watching…

I will have all your tracking tools in a bit.

The threat for strong and severe storms will then extend farther eastward across the rest of the region into Tuesday. Here’s the latest outlook from the Storm Prediction Center…

Damaging winds and large hail will be the main threats to be on guard for. Even without storms, winds can gust to between 40mph and 50mph at times.

Colder air is slower to arrive on Wednesday and that will lead to a big temperature gradient across Kentucky. With the slower moving front, the models try to develop a wave of low pressure along it, leading to a swath of rain and snow late Wednesday into Wednesday night. The GFS is pretty robust with this…

GFS

Other models are nowhere near as strong as that system. That’s a healthy shot of cold coming in behind whatever system sweeps through here, but it has zero staying power. Southwesterly winds kick back in later Friday with temps making a run at 60 once again. That’s ahead of another storm system set to bring gusty winds, thunderstorms, a big temp drop, and the chance for some snow. Sound familiar?

I will update things later today. Until then, let’s track today’s action…

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current Watches
Current Watches

Possible Watch Areas
Current MDs

Enjoy the day and take care.

26 Comments