Daily Archives: March 6, 2017

Time posted: 7:01 pm

Monday Evening Update

Good evening, gang. It’s a spring evening across the bluegrass, but all the attention is now focused on a weekend system that can bring a winter weather threat to this region. The models continue to be locked in on this potential from late Saturday into Sunday.

The first system of interest actually moves in early Friday. This introduces a much colder brand of air to the region from north to south. While it’s mainly a chilly shower maker, the models now show some flakes trying to get in…

The main storm system then follows that up Saturday night into Sunday. The models currently show the track of this storm from west to east across Tennessee. If that is indeed the track, this would put Kentucky into a swath of significant winter weather. Again… that’s IF the track is across Tennessee. If the track is farther north, then you know the drill. Farther south, and you know the drill.

Here’s the afternoon run of the GFS…

The swath of snow associated with that track…

That’s not too dissimilar from the run this morning…

The European Model first sniffed out this potential last week. Here’s the current look of the model…

The European Ensembles Control…

 

The individual members that make up the GFS Ensembles are spread between a direct hit on us and one just to our north…

It’s still very early in the game, but there is a real potential for a significant winter system impacting our weather this weekend. This may very well be our one and only “threat” of the entire winter… coming during the middle of March.

None of this makes the springtime version of your friendly weatherdude very happy. I will say this to Old Man Winter… Either go big or go home. I’m sure most of you would agree with that. 😉

Regardless, this will make for some interesting tracking in the days to come.

I will update things later tonight. Enjoy the evening and take care.

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Time posted: 12:42 pm

Midday Monday Update

Good afternoon, folks. It’s a busy pattern that’s slowly taking on much more of a winter look here in the first full week of March. The system this weekend continues to show itself as a potential winter weather maker on the latest forecast models.

Before we get to that, let’s talk about the thunderstorms coming tonight and early Tuesday. This is a severe weather maker across the Mississippi Valley, and could impact the far western part of the state…

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

For the rest of the region, showers will be common today with that line of showers and storms racing in early Tuesday. It should be in weakened form by then. Here’s regional radar…

A system on Friday brings gusty showers in here and unleashes some colder air behind it. We’re going to see one heck of a temperature gradient taking shape across the country with a storm developing along this. The models continue to take this storm farther south, giving us more of a winter threat this weekend.

The latest GFS is a hefty snow event from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic…

Last night’s European Model is very similar..

The European was the first to spot this potential several days ago, not the other models are jumping on it.

That same run of the Euro does this early next week…

I’ve talked and talked about how our warm pattern would not go straight into true spring without winter having one last shot. That appears to be in the making over the next week or two. 🙁

I will update things this evening. Take care.

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Time posted: 12:49 am

Interesting Trends Show Up

Good Monday, everyone. This week of weather looks to be as busy as advertised with several systems impacting our weather. A few days ago, several models showed more of a winter look, only to lose it. Those same models are now bringing that look back at us this weekend and early next week.

Showers are working across the state today and these will keep many thermometers in the 50s…

A cold front moves in Tuesday with a line of showers and thunderstorms whipping eastward through the day…

That line moving into western Kentucky early Tuesday can be on the strong side. Gusty winds will be common across the entire region over the next few days. 40mph gusts will be possible.

Seasonal temps come in behind that, leading us toward another system shooing in here by Friday. Winds will be gusty with this system as another round of showers move through.

The pattern behind this looks interesting with cold air taking up residence across the northern half of the country and trying to press toward the south. How far south does this press?

The GFS is sinking farther south with each run, but still shows a mainly rain maker ending as some snow later this weekend and early next week…

The Canadian Model is full blown winter…

The Model then follows that up with another winter weather maker…

The European Model has also been showing a similar winter look from time to time.

I will hook you up with more updates later today. Have a great Monday and take care.

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