Daily Archives: March 7, 2017

Time posted: 6:59 pm

Tuesday Evening Update

Good evening, gang. Your friendly weatherdude has been on the road all day, meeting some great people across the Commonwealth. Everyone had one question they wanted to ask… How much snow are we going to get this weekend. My answer? We are a long way from knowing that, but the chance is there to get some snow.

This is way too early in the game to be talking about anything, ANYTHING other than the potential scenarios and trends.

Today’s trend on the models have been for a litter farther south track. The European Model shows a farther south and slightly weaker solution…

The snowfall map from the European Model shifts the focus on snow potential into the southern half of the state…

The brand spanking new GFS offers similar ideas…

The average snowfall from 21 different members of the GFS Ensembles…

This system can only trend so far south, but there is the potential for this to trend toward a flatter solution. Why? Because the system coming in behind it continues to show up stronger…

The Canadian Model has always been farthest south and weakest with the weekend system. The keeps showing that, but with a twist. It drops the second system in from the northwest and captures that weekend system, blowing it up into a monster up the east coast…

I will start to hone in on this potential with my overnight update. Enjoy the evening and take care.

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Time posted: 1:41 am

All Eyes On The Weekend

Good Tuesday, folks. We have showers and thunderstorms rumbling across the state today as a cold front swings through. The main weather story is about a potential winter weather maker moving in here this coming weekend. It’s a setup we haven’t really seen since last winter.

Today is an active weather day with a line of showers and thunderstorms racing eastward across the state. Damaging winds are possible with this line, especially across the western half of the state. Your tracking toys…

Current Watches
Current Watches

Even without thunderstorms, some 50mph wind gusts are possible.

This doesn’t have a big push of cold coming behind the front, so seasonal temps should be noted on Wednesday. Highs should be deep into the 50s with the 60s waiting to return for Thursday.

This will be a very windy period as we wait for another system to roll across the Ohio Valley on Friday. This system brings mainly showers, but some flakes try to get into the mix.

That is on the leading edge of an arctic air mass spreading out from west to east across the northern half of the country. At the same time, very warm air is taking up residence across the south and southwest. That leads to a storm system to develop across the plains states, along the boundary…

That system will then roll eastward by Saturday into Sunday. The exact path of that low will, obviously, mean all the difference in the world for our weather.

If this thing takes a track across the Tennessee Valley, look out. That could deliver a big winter storm for our region. If it comes farther north and right across the state, that winter storm is off to our north. There’s also the chance to cold is stronger than the models show, crushing the storm system into something rather wimpy.

The GFS continues to show a healthy hit for the Commonwealth…

The new European Model also targets the bluegrass state…

The Canadian Model has a farther south and weaker solution…

Given that it’s only Tuesday, let’s slow our roll and see how the models look over the next few days.

No Midday update today because I have work related travels. I will tweet some thoughts then update things later today.

Have a good one and take care.

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