Daily Archives: March 8, 2017

Time posted: 7:30 pm

Wednesday Evening Update

Good evening, everyone. It’s all eyes on the weekend and the potential for a winter storm to impact the bluegrass state. This system continues to show up a with slight differences from model to model and from run to run. Those small differences can have big impacts on the actual weather where you live.

The current runs of the European and GFS Models are very similar with one another, with the greatest chance for snow across southern Kentucky into northern Tennessee. Here’s the European Model…

The GFS is similar, though just a smidge farther north compared to its earlier run…

The NAM has a north bias with many winter storm systems and is all alone with its current solution…

The snow map is likely very, very, very overdone…

Again, the NAM is usually overdone with precipitation amounts from this range in this kind of setup.

We aren’t done with winter after the weekend. This next system diving in here late Monday into Tuesday continues to get my attention. This can put some snow on the ground for many…

The European Model likes that same setup…

Sigh.

I will have another update later tonight. Enjoy the evening and take care.

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Time posted: 12:04 pm

Wednesday Midday Update

Good afternoon, folks. It’s a windy, but gorgeous day across the Commonwealth. It’s the kind of day that pops to mind when you think about the month of March. But, March is also a fickle month and that will be on display this weekend as we track a winter weather maker into the region.

Let’s start with the Thursday night and Friday morning cold front. This looks like a pretty wild little system with gusty winds and some thunder along and ahead of it, and the chance for a few snowflakes behind it…

Cold air then moves in, laying the ground work for a weekend storm system to work from west to east across the Tennessee Valley. The exact track and strength of that low is critical to who gets snow and how much they get.

It’s important to keep in mind we are in the window where the models flip some before trending back to where they were just a few days before. That doesn’t happen with every event, but it’s a noticeable trend over the years.

The current suite of models continues to target the southern half of the state for the greatest chance for snow. Here’s the new GFS…

That’s weaker and farther south than earlier runs, and is now the weakest and farthest south of any computer model. The snowfall map from that particular run…

The Canadian jumped back to the north and is stronger than all its earlier runs. Still, it targets southern Kentucky into Tennessee…

The NAM only goes through Saturday evening, but is the strongest and snowiest of the bunch…

So what have we learned from the early day run of the models? They still like southern Kentucky for the greatest risk for accumulating snow, but vary wildly on how much. Whatever falls will be wet and slushy and will have to overcome a warm ground.

Can this meet my “threat” criteria for parts of the state? Yes. Will it? I will figure that out tonight and Thursday.

By the way, the current trends indicate the potential for accumulating snow for the SEC Tournament in Nashville this weekend. Wildcats fans should take note of this.

Oh and the GFS has this early next week…

I will update things later this evening, so check back. Enjoy the day and take care.

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Time posted: 2:25 am

Tracking The Weekend Winter Threat

Good Wednesday, everyone. We have some very windy and mild weather for the next few days, but that’s not what you guys are looking for. It’s all about the potential for winter weather as we head into the upcoming weekend and early next week.

Winds will be very gusty out there today with temps in the upper 50s to low 60s. Those gusty winds will help boost temps into the 60s by Thursday.

A quick-hitting system moves in here early Friday with gusty showers and a big drop in temps. It’s possible to see a few flakes as the colder air moves in. That cold air then sets the stage for a potential winter weather maker this weekend.

The exact path and strength of this storm system is the determining factor on how much snow, if any, you get outside your house. The models have been jumping around a bit on recent runs, and that’s to be expected.

The new GFS is back to showing a healthy winter storm for much of the state Saturday and Sunday…

The snowfall map for that run shows a healthy hit for Kentucky into the Mid Atlantic states…

The European Model does not agree with that and continues to be weaker and farther south with a swath of accumulating snow…

The Canadian Model continues to be the weakest and farthest south model…

There is another system diving in here early next week. There is a decent chance for this thing to really dig in and amplify into a big system across the eastern half of the country. Here’s the GFS…

It won’t be until Thursday that we can finally get a full grasp on what our weekend system should bring our way.

I will have updates later today, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.

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