Daily Archives: March 9, 2017

Time posted: 7:45 pm

Thursday Evening Update

Good evening, folks. We have a potent cold front moving in here tonight with a nice line of showers and thunderstorms along it. The real story is what comes behind it with multiple hard freezes and snow chances.

The storms this evening can be strong or locally severe across the west and some of that may sneak across the southern half of the state…

Cold air comes in behind this, but Friday’s weather looks pretty good with sun and 40s.

The snow system zipping across the Tennessee Valley later Saturday into Saturday night will target southern Kentucky with some snow. The bulk of the action will fall in Tennessee, but the chance to see some light snow…

One of the scenarios I mentioned a few days for the cold air to be so strong it crushed the storm south. That’s the case this weekend with hard freezes likely.

I also talked about the next system moving in right behind that. This one has a chance to dig and form a major eastern US winter storm and is the one that’s had me intrigued for a while now.

The European Model…

Look at the crazy cold engulfing the region as this storm cranks up…

The GFS goes absolutely nuts with this system…

Again… I am very intrigued by this setup for early next week.

For all the green thumbs… forget about it. There’s not a whole lot you can do over the next week. This isn’t going to be a night or two of a hard freeze, it’s going to be about every night. Lows can drop deep into the teens on more than one occasion.

Have a great evening and take care.

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Time posted: 12:26 pm

Thursday Afternoon Thoughts

Good afternoon, gang. I don’t have a ton of time, so lets hit the high points of the forecast going forward. Obviously, most people are enamored by the chance for snow this weekend. My overall thoughts have not changed on that with the best chance being across southern parts of the state.

Before I get to that, there is the threat for some strong or local severe storms later today in far western Kentucky…

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Those showers and storms work across the state tonight with colder air coming in for Friday. That cold air then sets the stage for a wave of low pressure to develop and roll eastward with snow on the northern side of it.

The models really now match up well with the risk area map I made for WKYT-TV yesterday. That showed the far southern counties into Tennessee as having the best risk for accumulating snow.

The NAM snow map…

The GFS is even lighter with the snow…

The Canadian agrees…

Once again… southern Kentucky has the best chance or putting some wet snow on the ground. Even here, I’m not thinking this will get to a threat level event.

I’ve also said I’m much more intrigued by the system coming late Monday and Tuesday. This one can really amplify and cause some travel issues in our region…

I will have the latest snow potential from both systems on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm. Another update will come your way this evening.

Have a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 1:47 am

Winter Weather Chances Increase

Good Thursday, folks. Today’s weather is about two stages past awesome, so it really is hard to grasp the winter changes sweeping in here this weekend. It’s a pattern likely to bring snow to the state, with another snow maker a good bet early next week.

There is an increasing potential for winter weather to impact parts our region Saturday into early Sunday. We will COULD move into Winter Storm THREAT mode later today for parts of the south. The main focus for accumulating snow will likely be across the southern half of the Commonwealth, with much lower/no chances in the north.

The forecast models continue to jump around a bit, but we should see them hone in on this system today. The NAM is farther south than earlier runs…

The snow map from that particular run…

The Canadian Model continues to grow stronger with this system…

Each run of the model shows a little more snow and has it inching a bit to the north. The latest Canadian Model snowfall forecast…

On the other side of the snow spectrum is the GFS. This model keeps getting weaker and a touch farther south with the snow…

A friendly reminder that the above maps are all snapshots of individual computer forecasts that will change with each model run. Those are NOT forecasts of mine.  I will have a first call map out later today.

Snow or no snow where you live this weekend, it’s cold. Check out the numbers from the NAM…

The pattern into the first half of next week will feature additional shots of winter weather. There’s the chance to put some snow on the ground Monday night through Wednesday. Watch the action diving in on the GFS…

That’s a whole lotta ugly showing up for the Middle of March.

Lost in the snow shuffle is the amount of hard freezes we have over the next week and change. With everything basically in full bloom way too early, some serious damage will occur. Green thumbs are on full blown alert.

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